Here's why bitcoin bulls should take a closer look at interest rates

Crypto Daybook Americas Here's why bitcoin bulls should take a closer look at interest rates Your day-ahead look for July 22, 2026 By Omkar Godbole | Edited by Sheldon Reback Jul 22, 2026, 11:23 a.m. 3 min read Make preferred on Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Make preferred on Don't forget the cost of capital. (TradingView) Summary Show This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here , if you haven't already. As bitcoin BTC $ 66,011.27 regains its footing, optimism has returned to the market, and several observers are calling the recent price rise the start of a decisive bull run for valuations well beyond last year's $126,000 peak. But a look back at trends in bitcoin and Nasdaq valuations, adjusted for the cost of capital represented by the U.S. 10-year yield (US10Y), suggests bull runs may be more measured. (check Today’s signal) Both the BTC/US10Y and Nasdaq/US10Y ratios have failed to eclipse their 2020-2021 peaks, even though their dollar-denominated prices set new record highs over the past 12 months. In other words, when adjusted for the cost of capital, the true macro tops for bitcoin and the broader tech sector likely occurred in 2020-21. This divergence between nominal prices and yield-adjusted valuations can resolve in one of two ways. Either interest rates collapse, shrinking the denominator and propelling these ratios toward a fresh breakout, or the dollar prices of these assets decline to realign with the structural weakness revealed by the ratios. The latter scenario appears the more likely for two reasons. First, recent rhetoric from Fed officials has remained decidedly hawkish, with some even floating the possibility of interest-rate increases. Complicating matters further is the resurgence of energy prices. Bitcoin’s recent bounce from $58,000 to $66,000 has been respectable, yet its ratio relative to WTI crude oil futures has declined. This confirms that oil is outperforming even the most aggressive risk assets, a hint that a new wave of cost-push inflation may be loading into the system. The takeaway: Engineering a sustained bull run may be far more difficult than market participants perceive. If oil continues its ascent, we may see a sharp "snap adjustment," with nominal prices falling rapidly, consistent with their yield-adjusted valuations. Stay alert. Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's " Crypto Week Ahead ." What’s trending Crypto Clarity Act still at mercy of ethics section as Democrats balk at Trump deal (CoinDesk): U.S. Senate Democrats are said to be unhappy with some of the crypto market structure bill's most contentious section: the language that will ban government officials from significant crypto ties. Movement Labs files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy months after token scandal (CoinDesk): Movement Labs filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. In the filing, the company said it had fewer than 1,000 creditors, between $100,000 and $500,000 in assets and more than $1 million in liabilities. Balance stablecoin collapses 99% after $1 million exploit drains its bitcoin vaults (CoinDesk): Balance Coin, a low-circulation algorithmic stablecoin meant to hold a dollar peg, crashed more than 99% after an attacker exploited a pricing flaw, erasing nearly all of its roughly $3.5 million in nominal value. The attacker took $912,000. Oil prices jump 4% as Rubio says Iran ‘not serious’ about peace talks (CNBC): Oil prices rose 4% following the 11th consecutive round of U.S. strikes against Iran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the Strait of Hormuz remains a sticking point between the two sides. Today’s signal BTC charts. (TradingView) The chart in the left pane shows bitcoin’s price adjusted for the 10-year Treasury yield. The ratio peaked in 2021, and the 2025 bull market in BTC fell short of challenging that high. Nasdaq displays a similar pattern. Both suggest that bull runs may be more measured unless interest rates collapse. Separately, the BTC-WTI crude oil ratio has come off in the past few days, a sign that energy is outpacing gains in digital risk assets. This could be a warning of another inflation wave ahead. Crypto Daybook Americas Related Assets Bitcoin $ 66,025.05 0.40 % Latest Crypto News 1 SecondFi to shut down after $2.4 million ADA wallet theft 14 minutes ago 2 Bitcoin retreats from one-month high as oil tops $85, inflation concerns resurface 51 minutes ago 3 Kraken parent expands tokenized stocks to Hong Kong, UK and South Korea equities 54 minutes ago 4 Balance stablecoin collapses 99% after $1 million exploit drains its bitcoin vaults 2 hours ago 5 Live updates: Bitcoin under $66,000 as traders await Alphabet earnings to gauge AI trade 3 hours ago 6 AI models escaped OpenAI’s sandbox and hit Hugging Face. Crypto is where that gets dangerous 5 hours ago 7 Bitcoin holds near $66,300 as chips extend their rally and the yen hits a 40-year low 6 hours ago 8 Crypto lobby group Digital Chamber sues Illinois to block digital asset tax 13 hours ago 9 Crypto Clarity Act still at mercy of ethics section as Democrats balk at Trump deal 14 hours ago 10 Bitcoin rally faces key test at $68,000 as 'summer slumber' grips crypto, analysts say 15 hours ago Latest Research TRON Network - Q2 2026 TRON Network - Q2 2026 In Q2; TRON's stablecoin dominance rose to 28.7%, USDT supply on TRON hit $89B ATH, $89M in protocol fees (2nd to Hyperliquid), TRX +3%, and deepening institutional & agentic reach. By CoinDesk Research 22 hours ago Commissioned by Tron In Q2; TRON's stablecoin dominance rose to 28.7%, USDT supply on TRON hit $89B ATH, $89M in protocol fees (2nd to Hyperliquid), TRX +3%, and deepening institutional & agentic reach. Why it matters : In Q2; TRON's stablecoin dominance rose to 28.7%, USDT supply on TRON hit $89B ATH, $89M in protocol fees (2nd to Hyperliquid), TRX +3%, and deepening institutional & agentic reach. View Full Report More From Crypto Daybook Americas Bitcoin rally has broad-based support as institutions, whales, options traders pile in A bitcoin 'volmageddon' may be brewing, key indicator suggests AI frenzy losing steam leaves bitcoin less volatile than South Korean stocks More From Bitcoin SecondFi to shut down after $2.4 million ADA wallet theft Bitcoin retreats from one-month high as oil tops $85, inflation concerns resurface Kraken parent expands tokenized stocks to Hong Kong, UK and South Korea equities