Morning Minute: Hyperliquid Opens Prediction Markets to Anyone in HIP-4 Upgrade

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner . The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. GM! Today’s top news: Crypto majors slightly green as oil falls; BTC at $64.6k PUMP leads alt movers on the week, up 26% as its wave of unlocks begins Hyperliquid to roll out permissionless prediction markets requiring 500k staked HYPE Michael Saylor calls BIP-110 a “bad idea” Pudgy Penguins launch Plushie toys at Target stores across the US 🎲 Hyperliquid Opens Prediction Markets to Anyone in HIP-4 Upgrade Hyperliquid is taking prediction markets permissionless. The exchange said an upcoming enhancement to its recent HIP-4 upgrade, which introduced “outcome trading” in May, will let anyone deploy a prediction market on the platform. Right now those markets are controlled entirely by validators, and Hyperliquid says that going forward there will “ideally” be fewer than 10 validator-run markets a year, with the rest opened up to the crowd. It rolls out on testnet first, then mainnet. Anyone who wants to launch a market has to stake 500,000 HYPE (~$30M), a serious deposit that can be slashed if validators rule the market was poorly defined or settled incorrectly. In exchange, the deployer earns up to 50% of that market’s trading fees. It’s the same economic design behind its permissionless perps: put real skin in the game, get paid for good markets, lose your stake for bad ones. That’s a very different model from Polymarket and Kalshi, where the platform defines every market from the top down. It’s a timely move, as prediction markets just had their biggest summer yet. The World Cup helped the sector reach $50B in wagers for the month of June, and July is on pace to go even higher ($37B so far). Of that $50B, Kalshi is the clear market leader with $33B (66% market share). Hyperliquid did just $176M—so they’ve got their work cut out for them to make a meaningful dent in the sector. The Hyperliquid answer is to make the category open-source, turning prediction markets into another permissionless primitive rather than a curated product. But they are not a platform to be doubted, with Hyperliquid already flipping DEX-volume records, drawing JPMorgan warnings about its threat to Circle, and lobbying both the SEC and CFTC. If the permissionless model works, it could help them make a real splash. We will find out soon enough. 🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets Crypto majors closed the week green up 2-5%; BTC +3% at $64.6k; ETH +6% at $1,885; SOL +1% at $76.60; HYPE -7% at $60.80 PUMP (+28%) , PI (+22%) and INJ (+10%) led top movers on the week Oil -4% at $80 after progress on Iran talks; Gold +1% at $4,024 Stock futures are green as oil sells off; DOW +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.7% Michael Saylor called Bitcoin's BIP-110 proposal "a bad idea," arguing the anti-spam plan would set a censorship precedent and that "the proposed cure is more dangerous than the condition” Galaxy Digital signed a 15-year naming-rights deal to rename Texas Tech’s football stadium “Galaxy Stadium,” extending crypto’s march into college sports Project Eleven unveiled a technique to let users prove wallet ownership even after quantum computers can derive private keys The GENIUS Act hit its one-year anniversary with regulators having missed their rule-writing deadlines, though the framework takes full effect by July 2028 Corporate Treasuries & ETFs The Bitcoin ETFs saw $132M in net inflows on Friday and ended with $75M in net inflows for the week; the ETH ETFs saw $37M in inflows on Friday and ended with $105M Meme Coin Tracker Meme leaders were mostly flat or green over the past week; DOGE even, SHIB -1%, PEPE +5%, PENGU +4%, TRUMP +1%, BONK -23% Robinhood chain was led by Stonkbroker (+180%), REAL (+200x) and FOX (+70%); Cashcat +22% to $72M Solana leaders included AVA (+30%) and Cubeman (+85%); ANSEM +5% to $198M 💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker Pump.fun’s PUMP token is leading alt movers, up 26% on the week as its wave of unlocks begins Cross-chain protocol Allbridge halted after a $1.65 million flash-loan exploit that manipulated its Solana pool ratios, the latest in a wave of DeFi attacks 🚚 What is happening in NFTs? NFT leaders were slightly red; Punks even at 32 ETH, BAYC -2% at 8.65 ETH, Pudgy -5% at 4.06 ETH; Hypurr’s even at 188 HYPE Stonkbrokers (+125%) and Funkari (+30%) led top movers Pudgy Penguins officially launched their plushie toys in Target stores across the US Daily Debrief Newsletter Start every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more. Your Email Get it! Get it!