Bitcoin rally cools as investors digest inflation data, oil clouds outlook

Crypto Daybook Americas Bitcoin rally cools as investors digest inflation data, oil clouds outlook Your day-ahead look for July 15, 2026 By Francisco Rodrigues | Edited by Sheldon Reback Jul 15, 2026, 11:46 a.m. 3 min read Make preferred on Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Make preferred on U.S. producer price inflation data will help determine crypto market direction. (Shutterstock) Summary Show This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here , if you haven't already. Bitcoin’s BTC $ 64,649.37 rally on Tuesday petered out as investors considered a weaker-than-forecast U.S. inflation figure wasn’t enough to prompt a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut. While it’s still 3% higher over 24 hours, the largest cryptocurrency has dropped 0.5% since midnight. Ether (ETH), up 4.7% in 24 hours, has also pulled back by 0.5%. On Polymarket, the perceived odds of a rate increase plunged from 34% to 6.7% after the data came out. Bettors now weigh a 93% chance the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged this month, and the CME’s FedWatch shows 30-day fed funds futures prices indicating just a 14.4% chance of an increase. “Crypto's reaction to the latest CPI report shows the market is becoming more selective in how it interprets macro signals,” Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO, told CoinDesk. “While falling inflation reduces pressure on markets and improves the outlook for risk assets, traders are no longer assuming that every favourable inflation print will automatically lead to rate cuts or new all-time highs.” Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has said one favorable inflation report was not enough to declare victory , and kept the central bank’s next move tied to incoming data. A July rate cut from the European Central Bank is also effectively off the table , even as Brent crude now above $85 a barrel keeps inflation risks elevated. More guidance will come from U.S. producer prices, due later today, and PCE data near the end of the month. “The focus has shifted toward whether inflation can continue to cool without showing signs of a rebound,” Levin said. That leaves bitcoin’s next move tied less to the July decision than to whether inflation keeps cooling as oil prices rise. Geopolitical developments will remain key as well, given their current impact on oil and gas flows. Stay alert! Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's " Crypto Week Ahead ." What’s trending Stripe, Advent offer to buy PayPal for more than $53 billion, sources say (Reuters): Payments giant Stripe offered to buy PayPal in a deal worth $53 billion. The San Francisco-based firm made the $60.50-a-share offer in tandem with private equity firm Advent International. UK plans first G7 digital sovereign bond by early 2027 (CoinDesk): The U.K. plans to issue a digital sovereign bond by early 2027, becoming the first of the seven leading industrialized nations to place government debt on a distributed-ledger infrastructure. AI agentic payments enter mainstream as Visa, Mastercard, Ripple back x402 standard (CoinDesk): Every major card network has signed on to a payment standard built so that software can pay software without human involvement, bringing closer an era of high-volume, low-value payments between AI agents. World shares are mixed and oil prices climb as Iran threatens to block Middle East energy exports (AP): Global equity markets were mixed on Wednesday and oil prices climbed after Iran threatened to block Middle East energy exports now that the U.S. has resumed its blockade of Iranian ports. Today’s signal The chart shows the price of Hyperliquid’s HYPE in terms of bitcoin in weekly candles, highlighting the bearish divergence in RSI that is still playing out and indicating further relative downside. The debut today of perpetual futures on pre-IPO shares of CXMT, or ChangXin Memory Technologies, may change the dynamic. The perps in China’s biggest maker of DRAM memory chips will trade on Trade.xyz, a HIP-3 market. That means the trading volume directly benefits HYPE. CXMT stock is due to start trading after an $8.6 billion IPO in Shanghai toward the end of the month. Crypto Daybook Americas Related Assets Bitcoin $ 64,649.37 2.97 % Latest Crypto News 1 Crypto steadies as Middle East tensions counter U.S. inflation report boost 40 minutes ago 2 Stripe mounts blockbuster $53 billion bid to buy PayPal 1 hour ago 3 Live markets: Bitcoin, ether ETFs draw inflows as majors rise as much as 5% 3 hours ago 4 UK plans first G7 digital sovereign bond by early 2027 3 hours ago 5 AI agentic payments enter mainstream as Visa, Mastercard, Ripple back x402 standard 5 hours ago 6 Bitcoin nears $65,000 as cooling U.S. inflation guts the Fed rate-hike trade 6 hours ago 7 U.S. CFTC moves to stop Kalshi from canceling trades as ordered by Michigan court 14 hours ago 8 Some U.S. Senate Democrats come out against Clarity Act, calling it a 'corrupt' bill 16 hours ago 9 Binance bets on becoming a crypto 'super app' as stablecoins reshape growth 18 hours ago 10 The Clarity Act isn't a ticket to sanctions evasion, actually 18 hours ago Latest Research Gate Leads Spot Market Share Gains as CEX Volumes Rise for First Time in Five Months Gate Leads Spot Market Share Gains as CEX Volumes Rise for First Time in Five Months CEX trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11T and RWA perpetual volumes surging to a record $311B. By CoinDesk Research Jul 13, 2026 CEX trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11T and RWA perpetual volumes surging to a record $311B. Why it matters : CEX trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11T and RWA perpetual volumes surging to a record $311B. View Full Report More From Crypto Daybook Americas U.S.-Iran escalation weighs on bitcoin, stocks as oil climbs Resurgent U.S.-Iran hostilities send bitcoin lower even as ETF flows show demand Japan's 'invest locally' plan likely to spur demand for assets like bitcoin, gold More From Bitcoin Crypto steadies as Middle East tensions counter U.S. inflation report boost Stripe mounts blockbuster $53 billion bid to buy PayPal Live markets: Bitcoin, ether ETFs draw inflows as majors rise as much as 5%