Citi slashes 12-month bitcoin, ether targets as ETF flows dry up
Analysis
Price Impact
HighCiti, a major financial institution, has significantly lowered its 12-month price targets for both bitcoin and ethereum. this reduction is based on a notable slowdown in etf flows and a lack of positive regulatory developments in the us, which are key drivers for institutional adoption and investor sentiment. the revised targets reflect a more bearish outlook based on current market conditions and reduced expectations for future demand.
Trustworthiness
HighPrice Direction
BearishThe price targets for both btc and eth have been reduced substantially. the report highlights a sharp decrease in etf inflows, including record outflows in june, and the absence of significant legislative catalysts. concerns about digital asset treasury selling also contribute to a negative sentiment, suggesting that prices are likely to face downward pressure in the short to medium term.
Time Effect
ShortThe targets are for the next 12 months, indicating a short to medium-term outlook. the immediate impact could be felt as market participants digest this downgrade, potentially leading to further price corrections. however, the report also notes that any significant reversal in investor demand or legislative progress could quickly alter the outlook, suggesting that the bearish sentiment might not be permanent.
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Markets Citi slashes 12-month bitcoin, ether targets as ETF flows dry up The bank cut its 12-month bitcoin and ether price targets after scrapping its ETF inflow forecasts, citing stalled U.S. crypto legislation and weak investor demand. By Will Canny , AI Boost | Edited by Cheyenne Ligon Jul 1, 2026, 1:39 p.m. 2 min read Make preferred on Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Make preferred on Citi slashes 12-month bitcoin, ether targets as ETF flows dry up. (Pixabay) Summary Show Citi cut its BTC target to $82,000 from $112,000 and ETH target to $2,240 from $3,175. The bank now expects zero net ETF inflows over the next 12 months, versus previous forecasts for fresh demand. Stalled U.S. legislation, weak market sentiment and concerns over digital asset treasury selling have outweighed supportive macro conditions. Wall Street bank Citi cut its 12-month price targets for bitcoin BTC $ 58,723.61 and ether (ETH), citing a collapse in exchange-traded fund (ETF) demand and diminishing prospects for U.S. crypto legislation to revive investor interest. The bank lowered its base-case forecast for bitcoin to $82,000 from $112,000 and cut its ether target to $2,240 from $3,175. It now assumes no net ETF inflows over the next year, abandoning an earlier expectation that regulatory progress would drive fresh institutional allocations. Bitcoin was trading around $58,400 at publication time, ether at $1,570. "The absence of a catalyst for increased investor interest means we reduce our base-case flow expectations to zero over the next 12m," wrote analyst Alex Saunders in a Tuesday report. U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund demand has weakened sharply in recent months, removing what has been the crypto market's biggest source of institutional buying since the funds launched in 2024. The ETFs recorded a record $4 billion in net outflows in June, the largest monthly withdrawal on record, after a 13-day redemption streak pushed year-to-date flows into negative territory for the first time. The downgrade marks a sharp reversal from Citi's previous outlook, which assumed passage of U.S. digital asset market structure legislation would spur adoption among financial advisors and traditional investors. The bank now believes that timeline has slipped, leaving the market without a meaningful catalyst. Saunders said ETF flows continue to be the main force behind crypto prices, with recent demand turning negative as investors pulled back from risk. According to the bank's analyst, sentiment has also been hurt by concerns that digital asset treasury (DAT) companies could become net sellers of bitcoin. Recent corporate actions by Strategy amplified those fears despite involving relatively modest BTC sales. The report noted that bitcoin and ether both remain below key technical levels, including their 200-day moving averages, while speculative capital has shifted toward AI-related investments. The bank's revised forecasts assume flat ETF flows in its base case. In its bull case, stronger retail and institutional adoption lifts bitcoin to $108,000 and ether to $2,932. Its bear case, based on recessionary macro conditions and continued ETF outflows, sees BTC falling to $53,000 and ETH to $1,094. While the bank's equity strategists have become more constructive on U.S. stocks, providing some support through crypto's equity correlation, the report said that positive macro factors are insufficient to offset weakening flows. Despite the lower forecasts, ETF flows remain the single most important variable in the bank's valuation framework and any meaningful reversal in investor demand, or unexpected legislative progress, could quickly change the outlook. 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