Crypto relief rally fails to shake persistent bearish derivatives signal

Markets Crypto relief rally fails to shake persistent bearish derivatives signal A relief rally tied to recovering U.S. equities lifted BTC and ETH off weekly lows, but bearish derivatives positioning and negative CVD suggest the rebound may be fragile. By Oliver Knight , Omkar Godbole | Edited by Sheldon Reback Jun 25, 2026, 10:53 a.m. 3 min read Make preferred on Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Make preferred on Bitcoin price (CoinDesk Data) Summary Show Nearly $1 billion in crypto futures positions were liquidated in 24 hours as bitcoin's dip below $60,000 triggered a violent two-way move, with negative funding rates suggesting capital is skewed toward shorts rather than bulls. Implied volatility pulled back from Wednesday's highs, supporting the overnight bounce, though put-call skew remains extreme. SOL completed a 75% slide from its September peak after touching $64 on Wednesday, with a break below $60 threatening its lowest level since December 2023. The crypto market showed signs of resilience on Thursday, with bitcoin BTC $ 61,289.70 adding 1.1% since midnight UTC after dipping below $60,000 on Wednesday to its lowest since October 2024. The largest cryptocurrency remains at a critical level in terms of broader market structure. A potential break lower in price could trigger a slide to around $52,000. For now, it appears to have weathered the storm. Ether (ETH) rose 1.5% on Thursday and was recently trading at $1,644 after briefly tumbling to $1,550 at around 17:00 UTC on Wednesday. Thursday's gains can possibly be linked to a recovery in U.S. equities. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are 0.7% and 2.2% higher, respectively. Derivatives positioning BTC revisited lows near $59,000 on Wednesday and has since bounced back to over $61,000. The two-way volatility has proven costly for leveraged futures bets across the market. Centralized exchanges liquidated nearly $1 billion in crypto futures positions within 24 hours, with longs accounting for the largest portion. Still, bitcoin's futures open interest (OI) has jumped to 763K BTC, the most since June 4, ending a stretch of steadiness around 730K BTC. In other words, the price drop has triggered an inflow of money, but not necessarily on the bullish side. In fact, annualized funding rates have flipped negative, a sign of traders paying a premium for downside exposure. The ether futures market hasn't seen any notable increase in OI, and funding rates remain slightly positive. SOL's OI remains near Wednesday's record high, alongside largely neutral funding rates that point to balanced positioning in the market. The same is true for XRP, whose OI is hovering at its highest levels since October. The OI-normalized, 24-hour cumulative volume delta for most coins, including BTC, is negative for a third straight day. That's a sign bears are leading the price action by shorting at market prices rather than using passive limit orders. BVIV, which measures the 30-day implied volatility in BTC, has pulled back to 46% a high of 51%. This decline in the so-called "fear gauge," representing demand for options, supports the cryptocurrency's overnight rebound. The same is true for ether's implied volatility index, EVIV. Still, ether is seen as more volatile than BTC, with implied volatilities richer by 10 points or more compared with bitcoin's across all timeframes. Option skews for the two largest cryptocurrencies indicate downside concerns that are both persistent and strengthening . For instance, BTC's one-week skew shows a nearly 25-point volatility premium for puts. This also means upside bets are currently cheap and could draw strong demand should Thursday's U.S. Core PCE for May reveal a slowdown in inflation. Token talk The altcoin market posted an exaggerated bounce on Thursday after losses on Wednesday, a reflection of a low-liquidity environment. Jupiter (JUP) fell by more than 12% in six hours on Wednesday before bouncing by more than 18%, liquidating futures traders in both directions. Coinglass data shows that $1 billion in futures positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with $585 million of that being attributed to altcoin trading pairs. Decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens AAVE and ETHFI also performed well on Thursday, rising by 2.5% and 4.7%, respectively, since midnight. AI tokens, meanwhile, struggled to recover. RENDER and NEAR posted losses of between 0.8% and 1.9% despite a bounce across other crypto sectors. Layer-1 network token solana (SOL) tumbled to $64 on Wednesday to complete a 75% slide since September. A break below June 6's low of $60 would mark its lowest point since December 2023. Crypto Markets Today Related Assets Bitcoin $ 61,289.70 1.72 % Latest Crypto News 1 Bitcoin supply in loss reaches record high 10.83 million BTC 25 minutes ago 2 Micron delivers blowout earnings, surges 16% and deals crypto bulls a blow 52 minutes ago 3 Forget max pain theory. Bitcoin is well below the $72,000 magnet going into $10 billion options expiry 3 hours ago 4 Live markets: Bitcoin steadies ahead of U.S. PCE inflation data as DXY remains strong 4 hours ago 5 MemeCore's M token suddenly crashes 80% with no clear trigger 5 hours ago 6 Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin goes live in Japan after regulatory approval 5 hours ago 7 Bitcoin has a new line in the sand. Thursday’s core PCE could stress test it. 6 hours ago 8 XRP slides 2.8% as weak bounce keeps $1 support in focus 6 hours ago 9 Bitcoin back above $60,000, ETH, SOL recoup losses as AI stocks stage rebound 6 hours ago 10 Upheaval at the Ethereum Foundation has some of crypto’s biggest names feeling bullish 15 hours ago Latest Research CEX Volumes Drop to Lowest Since September 2024 as RWA Perps Hit Record High CEX Volumes Drop to Lowest Since September 2024 as RWA Perps Hit Record High In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high. By CoinDesk Research Jun 15, 2026 In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high. Why it matters : In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high. View Full Report More From Markets Bitcoin supply in loss reaches record high 10.83 million BTC Micron delivers blowout earnings, surges 16% and deals crypto bulls a blow Forget max pain theory. Bitcoin is well below the $72,000 magnet going into $10 billion options expiry More From Bitcoin Bitcoin supply in loss reaches record high 10.83 million BTC Micron delivers blowout earnings, surges 16% and deals crypto bulls a blow Forget max pain theory. Bitcoin is well below the $72,000 magnet going into $10 billion options expiry