You Were Promised High Inflation, But The Market Is Saying That Won't Happen Anymore

Today’s Letter Is Brought To You By Figure ! Figure’s building the future of capital markets through blockchain with $20B unlocked in equity. Use Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY, a one of a kind DeFi product where your crypto earns for you against RWA (real world assets). Figure also offers one of the lowest rates on their Crypto Backed Loans at 8.91% @ 50% LTV. Sign up now and earn $50 when you make your first deposit, earn ~9% yield, or take out a Crypto Backed Loan with their low rates today! 1 Claim Your $50 Bonus To investors, Inflation has been the big boogeyman for investors over the last two years. The doomsday predictors promised that tariffs would lead to high inflation, but those higher prices never materialized. Jerome Powell and the Fed eventually admitted they had misread the inflation impact and that tariffs did not have the negative impact they anticipated. Once the tariff-related inflation concerns subsided, we ended 2025 with a central bankers dream of a low-inflation, high-growth economy. This attractive environment didn’t last long though. President Trump and his administration ordered the bombing of Iran in late February, which led to the closing of the Strait of Hormuz and significantly higher energy prices globally. These higher energy prices created a spike in US inflation and the market commentators have been having a field day since with new promises of sky-high inflation that is right around the corner. The New York Times published an article last month titled “ Prices in the U.S. Are Rising at the Fastest Pace in Years .” ABC News wrote last week “ Fed holds interest rates steady as inflation hits 3-year high .” And Bloomberg wrote yesterday “ Fed’s Goolsbee Says Too-High Inflation Is ‘Going the Wrong Way.’ ” Even Torsten Slok from Apollo seems to have a weird take on inflation. He wrote this morning: The narrative in markets is changing from “lower oil prices mean lower inflation” to “lower oil prices mean more demand in an already overheating economy, which means higher inflation.” This breakdown in the correlation between rates and oil prices can be seen in the chart below. Driven by the strong April CPI, hot May non-farm payrolls and a hawkish Fed, the market narrative now suggests that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will further overheat the economy, forcing the Fed to raise interest rates soon. This mainstream coverage is unfortunately looking in the rearview mirror. Inflation expectations have cratered over the last few weeks, which signals a newfound level of confidence that the previously rising inflation will likely be temporary. James Thorne writes “doomers were wrong about inflation. Inflation expectations now lower than the beginning of the year.” That is a narrative violation if I have ever seen one. Azoria Capital shows inflation expectations have been falling across the entire US Breakeven curve (2 year, 5 year, 10 year, and 30 year). Somehow the major banks are confused by the latest developments. Bank of America is predicting three interest rate hikes before year end and Morgan Stanley is predicting zero. How the views of these organizations can be so widely different is always perplexing to me, but it highlights the complexity of the existing environment. Oil is down nearly 40% since the March high. Inflation expectations have fallen from the sky. The odds of a recession in the US has plummeted to one of the lowest levels in years. And my guess is that headline inflation numbers are going to start their descent in the third quarter. If all this remains true, not only will the Fed refrain from raising interest rates, but there is a good chance we will get at least one interest rate cut before the end of the year. Lower rates would bring higher asset prices. Be careful of the doomsday predictors. They are using the recent market weakness to claim victory, but it is more likely we are living through the seasonal “June Swoon.” July will come, assets will recover, and everyone will realize the bull market is just getting warmed up. Hope you have a great day. I will talk to everyone next time. - Anthony J. Pompliano Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR) 🚨 ProCap Insights : Agentic Research for Investors Who Want To Make Money Earlier this year, ProCap Financial launched ProCap Insights , the first agentic research offering in finance. Leveraging the latest AI, ProCap Insights offers institutional-grade research to help independent investors make more informed investment decisions. Reports cover single-name stocks, thematic trends, and macro analysis across sectors and asset classes. Subscribe for 60% off today I Just Revealed My Current Portfolio… I sat down with my brother John, cover the Mag 7 selloff, AI CapEx fears, and why inflation is more under control than the headlines suggest. We also break down Anthony's current portfolio, what Kevin Warsh is really doing at the Fed, and why bitcoin's volatility is a feature heading into its next decade. Spotify | Apple Podcast | YouTube | Rumble Podcast Sponsors Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure ! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. 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