Bitcoin could fall to $55,000 before finding a bottom, 10x Research says

Markets Bitcoin could fall to $55,000 before finding a bottom, 10x Research says A strengthening U.S. dollar and the Fed's hawkish turn under new chair Kevin Warsh may keep pressure on crypto through the summer. By Krisztian Sandor | Edited by Stephen Alpher Jun 24, 2026, 1:42 p.m. 1 min read Make preferred on Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Make preferred on (Jakub Żerdzicki/Unsplash/Modified by CoinDesk)) Summary Show 10x Research's Markus Thielen sees bitcoin falling to $55,000 before finding a cycle low. Thielen says a strengthening U.S. dollar has historically been a headwind for BTC. Several indicators point to a potential bottom for bitcoin's price between late August and October. Bitcoin BTC $ 61,744.11 likely has further downside ahead before the current bear market runs its course, according to 10x Research founder Markus Thielen. Thielen's call centers on the recent strength of the U.S. dollar, which historically acts as a headwind for bitcoin. The outlook has been reinforced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish turn under new Chair Kevin Warsh. Markets are increasingly debating whether the Fed's next move could be a rate hike rather than a cut, a backdrop that has supported the dollar and weighed on assets. Still, Thielen doesn't expect the downturn to last indefinitely. Three separate indicators — global liquidity trends, the macro calendar and bitcoin's seasonal patterns — all point to a potential market low between late August and October. One model tracking the rate of change in global liquidity, which Thielen said correctly identified a buying opportunity in March and an exit signal in April, points to late August as the next key inflection date. Seasonal patterns also suggest September has historically been a weak month for bitcoin, often followed by stronger performance in October. The timing coincides with two closely watched Federal Reserve meetings in September and October, as well as the U.S. midterm elections and the Treasury Department's quarterly refinancing announcement in early November. Taken together, Thielen sees bitcoin likely breaking below $60,000 and reaching $55,000 before carving out what he expects to be the low of this cycle. "The implication is patience now, attention in late August," he wrote. Bitcoin News Related Assets Bitcoin $ 61,744.11 1.03 % Latest Crypto News 1 CoinDesk 20 performance update: Aave (AAVE) gains 5.9% as index moves higher 22 minutes ago 2 CZ, Binance founder, wants to clear up 'misunderstandings' about who he is 42 minutes ago 3 Aave could soar to $3,500 by 2030 on DeFi revival, says StanChart 54 minutes ago 4 This forgotten coin could surprise everyone before its next halving 2 hours ago 5 Bitcoin clings to $62,500 as bears tighten grip on crypto market 2 hours ago 6 YZi Labs ends proxy war with BNB treasury company CEA Industries 2 hours ago 7 Cboe revives S&P 500 binary options, chasing a market popularized by Polymarket, Kalshi 3 hours ago 8 The Runes revival: Bitcoin traffic hits a two-year high as transactions blast past 820,000 3 hours ago 9 Michael Saylor should halt Strategy's bitcoin buys, says CryptoQuant 5 hours ago 10 Trump lands in Senate's crosshairs over $500 million UAE investment in his crypto venture 6 hours ago Latest Research CEX Volumes Drop to Lowest Since September 2024 as RWA Perps Hit Record High CEX Volumes Drop to Lowest Since September 2024 as RWA Perps Hit Record High In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high. By CoinDesk Research Jun 15, 2026 In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high. Why it matters : In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high. View Full Report More From Markets Aave could soar to $3,500 by 2030 on DeFi revival, says StanChart Bitcoin clings to $62,500 as bears tighten grip on crypto market The Runes revival: Bitcoin traffic hits a two-year high as transactions blast past 820,000 More From Bitcoin CoinDesk 20 performance update: Aave (AAVE) gains 5.9% as index moves higher CZ, Binance founder, wants to clear up 'misunderstandings' about who he is Aave could soar to $3,500 by 2030 on DeFi revival, says StanChart