Bitcoin ETF outflow pain eases just as another headwind gathers strength

Crypto Daybook Americas Bitcoin ETF outflow pain eases just as another headwind gathers strength Your day-ahead look for June 22, 2026 By Omkar Godbole | Edited by Sheldon Reback Jun 22, 2026, 11:30 a.m. 3 min read Make preferred on Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Make preferred on (Maximov Denis/Shutterstock) Summary Show This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here , if you haven't already. As traders return to their desks following an extended weekend in the U.S., there are two market dynamics worth noting that could influence the price of bitcoin BTC $ 64,314.18 and other major cryptocurrencies, which are buoyant today on the back of U.S.-Iran deal hopes. The first relates to bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) listed in the U.S., which lost another $228 million in redemptions in the shortened week. That's a sixth straight week in the red, taking the cumulative figure to $5.94 billion, according to data source SoSoValue. The good news is that the bleeding slowed for a second straight week. That follows $315.84 million in withdrawals the week before, marking a turnaround from the prior four weeks, when outflows not only topped $1 billion each week but grew larger with each passing week. "While the market has not yet returned to sustained net inflows, the slowdown indicates that the most aggressive phase of institutional de-risking is fading, with flows shifting toward more selective and balanced positioning," Tagus Capital said in an email. "Overall this points to a stabilizing but still fragile ETF demand backdrop, where investors are no longer accelerating exits but are gradually repositioning capital, providing a potential floor to downside," the firm said. The other notable dynamic is the decoupling of the U.S. two-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to Fed interest rate expectations, and WTI crude oil futures. While oil prices have collapsed, the two-year yield has strengthened, hovering at 4.21% as of this writing, the highest since February 2025. (Check the Daily Signal.) The decoupling indicates that oil and geopolitical headwinds for risk assets have been replaced by Fed rate-hike expectations. It's possible markets expect the second-order effects of the March oil-price spike to keep inflation higher in the near term, raising the likelihood of interest-rate increases. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE, is expected to confirm the trend. According to FactSet, it is forecast to have increased 0.37% on the month, lifting the 12-month rate to 3.4%, which would be the highest since May 2024. Overall, the slower, yet still bleeding ETFs and hawkish hints from bond yields suggest lower odds of a convincing BTC price recovery in the short term. And there's also what Strategy, the largest publicly listed BTC holder, does to address concerns about the price volatility of its STRC preferred stock. Stay alert! Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's " Crypto Week Ahead ." What’s trending Taiko halts its Ethereum layer-2 network after a bridge exploit, token dives (CoinDesk): Taiko halted block production and told users to pull their funds after an attacker forged the proofs a bridge uses to confirm that a withdrawal matches a real deposit. Losses were estimated at about $1.7 million. Ethereum validators asked to fund projects with up to 10% of staking rewards under new proposal (CoinDesk): The proposal introduced “validator redirected revenue,” a protocol-level mechanism that would let network operators send part of their staking rewards to ecosystem funding. U.S.-Iran talks make 'encouraging progress' but tension remains (Reuters): U.S. and Iranian officials made "encouraging progress" at a first round of talks in Switzerland, ​although tension persisted over Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices fell. SpaceX stock drops again after rally following blockbuster IPO (CNBC): SpaceX lost more than 4.3% in premarket trading on Monday, continuing a selloff that has seen the stock fall in the past two days of trading after a rally marked its record-breaking IPO. The stock was still up 37%. Today’s signal U.S. two-year Treasury yield vs WTI crude futures. (TradingView) The chart shows the performance of the U.S. two-year yield and the Nymex-listed WTI crude futures. The two moved in tandem after the Iran war began in early March, choking global oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and sending oil prices above $100 per barrel. The two-year yield largely mimicked oil price swings from March to late May, pointing to energy prices as the most important headwind for all markets, including cryptocurrencies. However, in recent weeks, oil has collapsed by nearly 20%, yet the two-year yield has hit 16-month highs. The divergence is telling of Fed hawkishness replacing Iran war and energy markets as a headwind for risk assets. Crypto Daybook Americas Related Assets Bitcoin $ 64,314.18 0.35 % Latest Crypto News 1 As bitcoin, altcoin prices gain, derivatives signal skepticism over a sustained rally 24 minutes ago 2 Bank of England backs down on strict stablecoin holding limits, sets $50 billion issuance cap 42 minutes ago 3 Geopolitical relief meets the Warsh Fed: Crypto Week Ahead 1 hour ago 4 Taiko halts its Ethereum layer-2 network after a bridge exploit, token dives 2 hours ago 5 Bitcoin price may be headed to $54,000, says analyst who forecast October's all-time high 2 hours ago 6 Live markets: Friday's biggest bitcoin options expiry of the year puts $60,000 in focus 3 hours ago 7 Bitcoin developers want to fix the 'replace this transaction with a higher fee' button. Here's why 5 hours ago 8 Ethereum validators asked to fund projects with up to 10% of staking rewards under new proposal 5 hours ago 9 XRP briefly loses $1.14 support before buyers drive sharp rebound 6 hours ago 10 Bitcoin holds near $64,000 as US-Iran talks progress but crypto sits out the rally 6 hours ago Latest Research CEX Volumes Drop to Lowest Since September 2024 as RWA Perps Hit Record High CEX Volumes Drop to Lowest Since September 2024 as RWA Perps Hit Record High In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high. By CoinDesk Research Jun 15, 2026 In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high. Why it matters : In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high. View Full Report More From Crypto Daybook Americas Franklin Templeton proposes new ETFs that turn corporate dividends into bitcoin Bitcoin's nemesis, the Dollar Index, is on the verge of a major breakout Three Fed signals that could make bitcoin pop More From Bitcoin As bitcoin, altcoin prices gain, derivatives signal skepticism over a sustained rally Bank of England backs down on strict stablecoin holding limits, sets $50 billion issuance cap Geopolitical relief meets the Warsh Fed: Crypto Week Ahead