Buying bitcoin below its 200-week average has historically delivered over 100% in median returns, Kraken says

Markets Buying bitcoin below its 200-week average has historically delivered over 100% in median returns, Kraken says Bitcoin briefly slipped below its 200-week moving average twice in the past two weeks, a rare event that Kraken says has historically marked strong entry points for buyers. By Omkar Godbole Jun 18, 2026, 5:08 a.m. 2 min read Make preferred on Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Make preferred on Summary Show Bitcoin's brief dips below its 200-week average have historically delivered median returns in excess of 100% over a year, according to Kraken. The pain of holding through these periods has been minimal. Bitcoin BTC $ 63,644.27 has recently been flirting with a level that has historically proved a near-perfect entry point for bulls, generating handsome returns, crypto exchange Kraken's Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo told CoinDesk. That level is the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), which represents the token's average price over that period, providing traders with a clear glimpse of the long-term trend while cutting through day-to-day noise. Twice in the past two weeks, BTC dipped briefly below its 200-week SMA before climbing back above it by the end of each week. As of writing, bitcoin is trading at $63,900, just above the 200-week SMA of $62,358. That's notable because, as per Perfumo, closes below this level have been rare, occurring on only about 10% of trading days since mid-2017, and have historically marked unusually attractive entry points for buyers. "Historically, buyers at this level have gone on to see median returns north of 113% over the following year and 313% over two years," Perfumo said in an email. Median here means that if you lined up every single time someone bought BTC below the 200-week SMA and ranked their returns from worst to best, then 113% is the return that sits right in the middle. It also means half of those buyers enjoyed higher returns than that while the rest ended with less. That's different from a simple average return, which can get skewed by one or two big outliers, or extraordinary gains. The story gets even more positive. Not only has buying below the 200-week average produced triple-digit gains over one- and two-year periods, but the pain of holding through that period has been limited. "For those who accumulated below the 200-week MA, the median time to break even on their investment has been just two days, while the median maximum drawdown over the subsequent year has been only 9%," Perfumo noted. However, he was careful to caveat the data, stressing that "past performance is no guarantee of future results. But the historical record makes a clear case: at these levels, bitcoin has tended to offer immense value." 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View Full Report More From Markets XRP slips 4% below $1.20 after breakout rally stalls near key resistance Bitcoin, ether slide after a hawkish Fed, even as Trump's signed Iran deal lifts stocks Next bull run will be slower, less volatile as investors' crypto appetite evolves, Bitwise CIO says More From Bitcoin XRP slips 4% below $1.20 after breakout rally stalls near key resistance Bitcoin, ether slide after a hawkish Fed, even as Trump's signed Iran deal lifts stocks Next bull run will be slower, less volatile as investors' crypto appetite evolves, Bitwise CIO says