Bitcoin Bottom Not Here Yet? This Indicator Remains In Transition Phase

Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing How Our News is Made Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Ad discliamer Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio. On-chain data shows the Bitcoin PnL Index is currently in a transition phase that has historically led into bottoms, but not immediately. Bitcoin PnL Index Has Been Going Down Recently In a new post on X, community analyst Maartunn has talked the latest trend in the Bitcoin PnL Index , which combines the data of a few key on-chain metrics into one to produce a single valuation indicator for BTC. Related Reading Bitcoin Bottom Not Here Yet? This Indicator Remains In Transition Phase Just now The metrics include the MVRV Ratio, NUPL, and LTH/STH SOPR. The former two deal with unrealized investor gains/losses while the last one is related to the gains/losses that holders are realizing through their transactions. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the 365-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin PnL Index over the history of the cryptocurrency: The value of the metric appears to have been heading down in recent months | Source: @JA_Maartun on X As displayed in the above graph, the 365-day MA of the Bitcoin PnL Index has been following a consistent downtrend since Q4 2025, reflecting the bearish market shift. So far, the indicator hasn’t left the positive territory, which suggests that, at least from the perspective of the metric, the cryptocurrency hasn’t yet become “undervalued.” In the chart, it’s visible that historical bear market bottoms have generally occurred as the PnL Index has dropped into the red zone. Given this, it’s possible that a similar trend will play out in this cycle as well. Though, something to keep in mind is that the current cycle has already differed from the previous ones in the bull market phase. Past cycles observed a single main peak in the PnL Index coinciding with the market top. This cycle, however, witnessed the formation of two similarly sized peaks occurring alongside the Q1 and Q4 2025 tops. As such, it now remains to be seen how the indicator’s trajectory will look by the time this bear market has played out and whether it will be anything like that seen in the previous cycles. Related Reading Bitcoin Back At Production Cost: Analyst Says Best Value Zone Starts Here 1 day ago In some other news, the recent bearish price action has meant that the Bitcoin short-term holder (STH) whales have fallen into a deep state of loss, as highlighted by the analyst in another X post . The STH whales refer to the BTC investors carrying at least 1,000 tokens in their wallet who bought into the cryptocurrency within the past 155 days. Below is a chart that shows how the net profit/loss held by these humongous investors is looking right now. The profit-loss status of the BTC STHs | Source: @JA_Maartun on X “Short-Term Holder Whales are now sitting on -$16.4B in unrealized P&L, the deepest level of stress seen in this cycle,” noted Maartunn. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $61,700, down over 6% in the last seven days. The trend in the price of the coin over the last five days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com