Bitcoin hits Power Law level low that historically precedes a rebound

Markets Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Bitcoin hits Power Law level low that historically precedes a rebound The power law model shows BTC trading at one of its deepest discounts relative to trend, a level previously seen during the March 2020 crash and FTX collapse. By James Van Straten | Edited by Sheldon Reback Jun 3, 2026, 12:01 p.m. 1 min read Make preferred on Power Law (Checkonchain) What to know : Bitcoin's decline below $66,000 has pushed it to the lower boundary of the Power Law corridor, a long-term valuation model that has contained price action for more than a decade. The Power Law Oscillator has fallen to 4.4%, indicating that bitcoin is priced cheaper than 95.6% of historical readings relative to its long-term trend. Trading at that level has often preceded a rebound. After briefly falling below $66,000 on Wednesday, bitcoin BTC $ 66,963.06 is trading near the bottom of the Power Law corridor, a level that has historically come shortly before rebounds in the price of the largest cryptocurrency. The model, popularized by physicist Giovanni Santostasi and refined by Porkopolis Economics, plots bitcoin's price against time on a logarithmic scale and suggests that growth slows naturally as the network matures. It has tracked bitcoin's price trajectory for more than a decade. Unlike traditional cycle-based models that focus on the rate at which new bitcoin is created — it's cut by 50% roughly every four years — the Power Law argues that bitcoin follows a long-term mathematical trend similar to patterns observed in nature, where growth decelerates over time. According to checkonchain data, the Power Law Oscillator shows that when measured against the model, bitcoin has been more expensive than it is today for roughly 95.6% of its trading history. Previous visits to these levels have coincided with periods of extreme market stress, including the March 2020 pandemic-driven selloff and the collapse of crypto exchange FTX in November 2022. Both events pushed bitcoin toward the lower edge of the model before significant recoveries followed. While the Power Law offers no guarantee the floor will hold again, long-term investors view the current reading as a sign that bitcoin is trading near one of its deepest historical discounts relative to trend. Bitcoin News More For You Grayscale launches lowest-fee U.S. Hyperliquid ETF as competition heats up around HYPE By Helene Braun , AI Boost | Edited by Nikhilesh De 2 minutes ago The Nasdaq-listed fund charges a 0.29% sponsor fee, undercutting rival Hyperliquid ETFs from 21Shares and Bitwise. What to know : Grayscale said Wednesday it launched the Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF (HYPG) on Nasdaq with a 0.29% sponsor fee, undercutting rival Hyperliquid funds from 21Shares and Bitwise. HYPG seeks to provide exposure to the HYPE token while generating additional returns through staking, with Grayscale citing historical staking rewards of about 2.2%... Read full story Latest Crypto News Grayscale launches lowest-fee U.S. Hyperliquid ETF as competition heats up around HYPE 2 minutes ago Payment giants Stripe, Visa, Mastercard said to be among backers of soon-to-debut stablecoin platform 14 minutes ago Crypto PACs go undefeated in June primaries as Fairshake scores bipartisan winning streak 15 minutes ago Bitcoin momentum gauge hints at recovery. Experts remain cautious. 42 minutes ago Bitcoin steadies at $67,000, faces critical juncture after sliding 9.5% in seven days 1 hour ago Apparent Zcash outage was a block explorer problem, infrastructure provider says 1 hour ago Top Stories UK's financial watchdog cracks down on Premier League crypto partnerships 1 hour ago DeFi won't win over big banks until it fixes its hacking problem, executives say 2 hours ago Bullish crypto bets lose $1.6 billion as ETH, SOL, DOGE drop 9% 7 hours ago Banks' survey says people don't want to rock the boat if stablecoin yield risks lending 3 hours ago Bitcoin's slide to $66,000 is accelerating a shift into digital dollars 9 hours ago Prediction market traders bet bitcoin's selloff has further to run 5 hours ago In this article BTC BTC $ 66,867.09 ◢ 2.95 %