Prediction market traders bet bitcoin's selloff has further to run

Markets Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Prediction market traders bet bitcoin's selloff has further to run Markets now imply a 66% chance bitcoin falls below $55,000 and a coin-flip chance of sub-$50,000 prices before year-end. By Sam Reynolds | Edited by Omkar Godbole Jun 3, 2026, 6:23 a.m. 2 min read Make preferred on (Unsplash/mana5280) What to know : Prediction market traders see a strong chance chance that bitcoin falls below $55,000 this year, with meaningful odds it could drop under $40,000. Heavy outflows from U.S. bitcoin ETFs and investors’ growing preference for high-flying AI stocks are pressuring bitcoin, which has slumped toward $65,000. While traders are increasingly bearish on bitcoin’s near-term performance versus assets like gold, money is shifting into stablecoins such as USDT and USDC rather than leaving crypto altogether. Prediction market traders are increasingly wagering that bitcoin's correction is far from over, even after the cryptocurrency tumbled toward $65,000 this week amid mounting pressure from ETF outflows and weakening institutional demand. On Kalshi , traders currently assign a 66% probability that bitcoin drops below $55,000 this year and a 50% probability of sub-$50,000 prices. They also give a 31% chance that prices could even dip below $40,000. (Kalshi) Polymarket traders are expressing a similar view. Contracts on the platform imply a roughly 67% chance bitcoin falls below $55,000 this year and a better-than-even chance it drops under $50,000. On prediction platform Polymarket , traders now give bitcoin only a 30% chance of outperforming gold in 2026. Gold is down approximately 1.5% in the last month but is up 33% in the last year while BTC is down around 37%. This comes amid dwindling institutional appetite for the leading cryptocurrency. According to data from SoSo Value , traders withdrew $2.4 billion from U.S.-listed BTC ETFs in May and $1 billion in the first two trading days of June, with the record-breaking outflow continuing. Meanwhile, K33 Research argues that bitcoin is also losing a battle for investor attention against artificial intelligence-related stocks. As CoinDesk previously reported, in a report on Tuesday , the firm said many investors view the opportunity cost of holding bitcoin as too high while AI-linked companies continue to post outsized gains and major equity indexes push to record highs. "Much of the market views the opportunity cost of holding BTC as too high while anything AI-related soars," K33's Vetle Lunde wrote. While K33 still views bitcoin as undervalued relative to equities over the long term, prediction markets suggest traders are increasingly positioning for lower prices before any recovery arrives. While traders increasingly bet on lower bitcoin prices, capital does not appear to be leaving crypto entirely. Instead, it is increasingly moving into digital dollars. USDT and USDC have both gained market share during bitcoin's slide to $66,000, CoinDesk previously reported , a sign that traders are raising cash and waiting for better opportunities rather than immediately buying the dip. Bitcoin News Prediction Markets More For You Bitcoin's 'fear gauge' surges nearly 20%, its biggest jump since Feb. 5 crash By Omkar Godbole 32 minutes ago The jump signals return of fear after two months of calm market sentiment. What to know : Bitcoin's fear gauge, BVIV, surged nearly 20% Tuesday, its biggest single-day spike since Feb. 5. The jump signals return of fear after two months of calm market sentiment. Read full story Latest Crypto News Bitcoin's 'fear gauge' surges nearly 20%, its biggest jump since Feb. 5 crash 32 minutes ago Bullish XRP signals are piling up. The price keeps falling. 1 hour ago Bullish crypto bets lose $1.6 billion as ETH, SOL, DOGE drop 9% 1 hour ago Bitcoin plunges below $66,000 as global stocks, AI trades hit fresh records 1 hour ago Mastercard expands on-chain settlement in bet on stablecoins and always-on finance 2 hours ago Bitcoin's slide to $66,000 is accelerating a shift into digital dollars 3 hours ago Top Stories Hyperliquid predicted 80% of oil move before traditional exchanges opened, says expert report 14 hours ago Bitcoin derivatives markets flashing warning signs as price plunges below $70,000 18 hours ago Strategy's bitcoin sale may mark start of ether outperformance, StanChart's Kendrick says 17 hours ago Strategy sold bitcoin in late May, and told the market in June. Here's how Polymarket bettors are fighting over when it counts. Jun 2, 2026 Mt. Gox moves 10,422 bitcoin worth $739 million to a new wallet as deadline nears Jun 2, 2026 Bitcoin's slide may have more to do with AI than Strategy 19 hours ago