The Retail Investor Feeding Frenzy

Today’s Letter Is Brought To You By Figure ! Figure’s building the future of capital markets through blockchain with $20B unlocked in equity. Use Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY, a one of a kind DeFi product where your crypto earns for you against RWA (real world assets). Figure also offers one of the lowest rates on their Crypto Backed Loans at 8.91% @ 50% LTV. Sign up now and earn $50 when you make your first deposit, earn ~9% yield, or take out a Crypto Backed Loan with their low rates today! 1 Claim Your $50 Bonus To investors, Financial markets have officially flipped from the doom and gloom earlier this year to a euphoric state of momentum chasing. Julian Klymochko writes “It's a feeding frenzy. Retail stock trading volume this month is on track to finish 10% above the previous record set during the January 2021 meme stock bubble.” This “feeding frenzy” continues to push the S&P 500 to new all-time highs. We have had 21 different all-time high records reached year-to-date. A big part of this performance has been AI stocks and the related inputs to the industry. The Pope is even tweeting about AI, so you know we have reached levels of mainstream conversation that are reserved for only the frothiest environments. But the popularity of AI is not the only thing attracting so much capital. This generation of persistently online investors are seeking as much volatility as they can find. This is why they loved bitcoin a few years ago. Now they are looking for the same volatility in new places. Julian highlighted how the stock market is providing this price action when he wrote “the number of stocks moving +/- 10% on earnings days has risen five-fold over the past 5 years.” And if betting on volatility for earnings reports was not enough, investors have been pouring capital into levered single-stock ETFs. Here is the explosion of AUM for these funds over the last two years: A big reason for the enthusiasm and risk-taking is that investors have been profiting handsomely off this strategy in recent years. Take Jerome Powell’s reign as Federal Reserve Chairman as one example. Carson Group’s research team shows the “S&P 500 [was] +169.6% under his 8+ year tenure. 12.7% annualized, which is the 3rd best ever. Pandemic, inflation surge, aggressive hikes, a near-recession in '23 that never came. Plenty of bumps, but the scoreboard is hard to argue with.” The scoreboard may look good in hindsight, but the price appreciation in recent years doesn’t come without risk. The Buffett Indicator has now reached “an all-time high of 236%, the most expensive stock market valuation in history.” Despite this valuation risk, more than half of Americans continue to expect stock prices to be higher in 12 months . This expectation remains elevated against the backdrop of the household savings rate dropping 3% over the last 12 months . So we have a situation where the average retail investor continues to say they are bullish, which is supported by the flow of capital into the market. Their actions are aligned with their words. These details, combined with the continued strength in corporate earnings, gives me confidence that we will see higher stock prices through the end of the year. The war in Iran is not going to stop that trend. Neither will higher gas or grocery prices. The American population has realized over the last few years that they must invest aggressively in the market to have a fighting chance of financially surviving. We are now watching the knock-on effect from that realization. And if these investors, who have much more money than people realize, are going to invest aggressively into the market, then you have a persistent bid that will chase momentum, while also furiously buying any dip in market prices as well. This situation is different than it used to be. But I don’t think investors need to change anything about their strategy because of the behavioral changes in the market. Buying great assets and holding them for the long-term is an approach that will never go out of style. I hope everyone has a great end to their week. I will talk to you on Monday. - Anthony J. Pompliano Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR) Bitcoin Is The Only Asset That Survives What’s Coming Jan van Eck is the CEO of VanEck, a $200 billion asset manager and one of the leading ETF companies in the world. In this conversation , we discuss why bitcoin is still early in its institutional adoption cycle, the looming U.S. government spending crisis and what it means for your portfolio, VanEck's long-term bet on India, and how AI is beginning to reshape investment decisions. Podcast Sponsors Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure ! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!) Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? 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Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research. 1 Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.