Bitcoin at $40,000 would be 'near-unprecedented' statistical outcome, analyst says

Markets Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Bitcoin at $40,000 would be 'near-unprecedented' statistical outcome, analyst says Mean-reversion models suggest bearish targets imply a 0.4th percentile event, far beyond typical market corrections. By James Van Straten | Edited by Sheldon Reback Apr 25, 2026, 3:00 p.m. Make preferred on Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index (CheckonChain) What to know : A drop to $40,000 would place bitcoin in the 0.4th percentile of historical price deviations, making it one of the most statistically extreme events on record. At around $78,000, bitcoin currently sits near the 31.5th percentile, indicating a historically weak, but still normal, correction range. Bitcoin's BTC $ 78,097.57 recent gains — it's added almost 15% this month — aren't enough to convince some industry observers that the largest cryptocurrency has escaped the bear market it entered in October. It is, after all, still 40% below its record. There may be deeper drops to come, with some, unidentified, forecasters, predicting a drop to as low as $40,000, a 70% drop from its all-time high. The figure comes from bitcoin analyst James Check , who says such a move is unlikely. While not impossible, he said in a post on X, it would be statistically extraordinary. "Just to make a point, for the bears who want to see $40k. You may well end up right. However, consider that on a mean reversion basis, averaging relative to nine anchors (a mix of technical, onchain, trend, fast, slow etc), it is a Q 0.4 event. Lower than $2 Bitcoin in 2011." After climbing over $126,000 in October, bitcoin slid more than 50% to around $60,000 in February before stabilizing. It was trading Friday near $78,000. Talking to the bears, Check said their predictions warrant closer scrutiny. Check points to the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, a composite model that averages multiple key valuation metrics, including the 200-week moving average, realized price, power law trend and a number of volume-weighted average price measures. The index ranks bitcoin’s price on a historical percentile basis. When modeled at $40,000, bitcoin registers as a “0.4 event,” meaning it would fall in the 0.4th percentile of all daily closes. “That’s below any meaningful deviation across all major anchors,” Check said. For context, Check says that would be equivalent to bitcoin trading below $2 in 2011 on a relative basis. By contrast, today’s price sits around the 31.5th percentile, historically weak but within normal correction ranges. “There’s no zero probability in markets,” Check added, “but this would be a near-unprecedented outcome.” Mean reversion Index (CheckonChain) Bitcoin News More For You BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF just hit a massive milestone that proves crypto is now a mainstream bet By Omkar Godbole | Edited by Aoyon Ashraf 10 hours ago IBIT options open interest topped Deribit on Friday, signaling rapid institutional adoption of regulated crypto derivatives in the U.S. What to know : IBIT options open interest topped Deribit on Friday, signaling rapid institutional adoption of regulated crypto derivatives in the U.S. Positioning differs across markets: IBIT flows appear slightly more bullish than Deribit's BTC options. Despite similar scale, IBIT and Deribit cater to different investor bases. Read full story Latest Crypto News Crypto is built for AI agents, not humans, says Alchemy's CEO 10 hours ago Trump defends crypto legislation at private event featuring boxer Mike Tyson, Tether CEO 10 hours ago BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF just hit a massive milestone that proves crypto is now a mainstream bet 10 hours ago How Anthropic’s Mythos model is forcing the crypto industry to rethink everything about security 12 hours ago Bitcoin falls after Trump reportedly canceled Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner's Iran-talks trip 13 hours ago Mike Tyson, Tether CEO, Cathie Wood among speakers at Trump's 'most exclusive' crypto conference 13 hours ago Top Stories Clock is ticking for bitcoin to prevent quantum threat as it could drain 6.9 million BTC including Satoshi’s 19 hours ago Coinbase’s Jesse Pollak says AI agents are the next big wave for crypto payments 16 hours ago U.S. CFTC adds New York to string of states its suing to stop prediction market pushback Apr 24, 2026 Michael Saylor says the bitcoin winter is over. Some experts agree, with caveats. Apr 24, 2026 SpaceX's $75 billion IPO could drain the liquidity that's helping lift bitcoin and crypto Apr 24, 2026 Trump's DOJ drops probe that stood in way of president's pick to run Federal Reserve Apr 24, 2026 In this article BTC BTC $ 78,097.57 ◢ 0.72 %