Prediction market volumes to hit $1 trillion by 2030 with Robinhood, Coinbase as key players, Bernstein says

Markets Teilen Diesen Artikel teilen Link kopieren X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook E-Mail Prediction market volumes to hit $1 trillion by 2030 with Robinhood, Coinbase as key players, Bernstein says The broker said prediction markets are scaling into a trillion-dollar asset class, driven by regulatory clarity, crypto rails and distribution via major trading platforms. Von Will Canny , AI Boost | Bearbeitet von Aoyon Ashraf 15. Apr. 2026, 12:55 p.m. Übersetzt von KI Make preferred on Wall Street broker Bernstein sees prediction market volumes hitting $1 trillion by 2030. (Unsplash) What to know : Bernstein expects prediction market volumes to hit ~$1 trillion by 2030, up from $51 billion in 2025. Sports leads today, but crypto and macro contracts are set to dominate longer term. Revenues could exceed $10 billion by 2030, with Robinhood and Coinbase emerging as key distribution players, the report said. Wall Street broker Bernstein expects prediction market volumes to reach roughly $1 trillion by 2030, as the sector evolves from niche wagering into broad-based “information markets” spanning sports, crypto, politics and the economy. Volumes hit $51 billion last year and are on pace to reach about $240 billion in 2026, implying roughly 80% compound annual growth through the end of the decade, the report said. Activity has already accelerated in 2026, with Polymarket and Kalshi recording combined year-to-date volumes of $60 billion. "Increasing regulatory clarity at the federal level is expanding the addressable market, while blockchain-based tokenization and integration with crypto markets is enabling global liquidity, long-tail event creation and participation from institutions," wrote analysts led by Gautam Chhugani. Prediction markets have surged from a niche corner of crypto and academic experimentation into a fast-growing segment of global trading activity in just a few years. Volumes have spiked alongside major news cycles, most notably the 2024 U.S. election, while platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have expanded access beyond politics into sports, crypto and macroeconomic events. The combination of clearer U.S. regulatory footing, improved user experience and the integration of blockchain-based liquidity has accelerated adoption, pushing the sector toward mainstream relevance The report attributed the growth to improving federal regulatory clarity, which expands access beyond fragmented state-level gaming rules, alongside blockchain-based infrastructure that enables global liquidity and rapid creation of new event contracts. Sports currently accounts for about 62% of volumes, benefiting from lower effective take rates versus traditional online sportsbooks. But the analysts expect that share to fall to roughly 31% by 2030, as crypto-linked contracts and macro, political and economic events gain traction. Institutional participation is also expected to grow, particularly for hedging event-driven risks. $10.8 billion in revenue Bernstein analysts estimate industry revenues could expand from roughly $400 million in 2025 to $2.5 billion in 2026, reaching about $10.8 billion by 2030 at current take rates. Even with significant fee compression, they see potential for a multi-billion-dollar revenue pool. Distribution is emerging as a key competitive moat. The report pointed to Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN) as early leaders, leveraging their combined tens of millions of users. Robinhood has already built a $350 million annualized revenue run rate from prediction markets and is moving toward owning exchange infrastructure, while Coinbase entered via Kalshi with nationwide access to more than 1,000 contracts, the report added. The broker has an outperform rating on both Coinbase and Robinhood. Read more: Why Cantor Fitzgerald thinks Robinhood and Coinbase are the best ways to play the prediction market boom Prediction Markets Polymarket Kalshi Coinbase Bernstein AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards . For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy . More For You Trump-backed World Liberty Financial proposes unlocking 62 billion tokens By Shaurya Malwa | Edited by Stephen Alpher 19 minutes ago The project would burn 4.5 billion tokens while beginning to vest 40.7 billion tokens for founders and the team, restructuring locks that were originally set to be indefinite. What to know : World Liberty Financial, a Trump family-backed crypto venture, has proposed unlocking 62.3 billion WLFI governance tokens that were previously locked without a vesting schedule. 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