The Truth On Whether AI Will Take Your Job Or Not

To investors, I normally don’t write a letter to you on Sunday morning, but I wanted to highlight a very interesting research report that came from ProCap Insights over the past week. The report looks at the impact of AI on the job market, including an analysis of whether artificial intelligence is stealing human jobs. One of the most eye-opening conclusions was artificial intelligence has a disproportionate negative impact on young people compared to their older peers. The report explains : In August 2025, researchers at the Stanford Digital Economy Lab published what may be the most important labor market study of the AI era. Erik Brynjolfsson, Chinchih Chen, and others analyzed employment trends across occupations ranked by AI exposure. Their findings shatter both narratives simultaneously. Workers aged 22 to 25 in the most AI-exposed occupations experienced a 16% relative decline in employment since late 2022, after controlling for firm-level shocks. Young software developers specifically saw employment fall 20% below its late fall 2022 peak by mid-2025. Early-career customer service workers declined 11% from their November 2022 peak. But workers aged 30 and over in those exact same high-AI-exposure occupations saw employment grow between 6% and 12% over the same period. The labor market did not shrink in these sectors. It bifurcated. The mechanism is consistent with how AI tools interact with the labor force. AI handles a growing share of rules-based, structured tasks traditionally assigned to junior workers, from drafting emails and writing boilerplate code to summarizing documents and handling tier-one customer queries. Senior workers, whose value comes from tacit knowledge, judgment, and soft skills, are not displaced by these same tools. They are augmented by it. One experienced developer with Copilot produces what previously required a team of three juniors. JPMorgan’s Aliaga found the same dynamic. Over one-third of U.S. workers now use generative AI for job tasks, but the St. Louis Fed estimates generative AI accounts for just 5.7% of total work hours as of mid-2025. That 5.7% falls disproportionately on the repetitive, entry-level work that defined the first rung of most professional careers. Goldman Sachs estimates that two-thirds of U.S. occupations have AI exposure, but only 6% to 7% of workers face genuine displacement risk. The rest face augmentation, and augmentation benefits the experienced. This data makes sense when you realize that artificial intelligence is going to eat into the work force from the bottom up. As the technology improves, it will take over more complex and senior tasks, but until we reach that level of innovation it will be the young people who are affected the most. But the story is not only age-specific. The ProCap Insights report, which is generated through an agentic AI system, identifies major pain underway in the publishing and media industries. The report explains: BLS establishment survey data reveals which sectors are already living in the post-AI labor market. Motion picture and sound recording employment has fallen 18.9% since January 2023, from 415,900 to 337,400 workers. Publishing industries employment declined 5.8% over the same period, from 958,500 to 902,800. These are content-creation sectors where AI tools directly substitute for junior and mid-level creative labor. Meanwhile, professional, scientific, and technical services, the largest white-collar sector, grew just 0.9% over three years. That 0.9% translates to roughly 97,000 jobs added in a sector of 10.8 million, a pace that barely keeps up with population growth. The sector is not contracting. It is calcifying. The Harvard Business School research published in March 2026 reinforces this. Analyzing nearly all U.S. job postings from 2019 through March 2025, researchers found that automation-prone roles saw a 13% decrease in postings since ChatGPT’s launch, while analytical, technical, and creative roles saw a 20% increase. Job postings for automation-prone occupations also required 7% fewer skills. Employers are not just posting fewer jobs. They are posting simpler ones, consistent with AI tools absorbing the complexity that once required a dedicated human. Generative AI is very good at producing content, so it makes sense that content-focused industries are coming under pressure. Remember, this is the worse the technology will ever be, so we should expect an acceleration from here. I continue to tell people that three areas of media will be safe from AI disruption: scoops, long-form profiles, and live coverage. But I believe people can insulate themselves from being negatively affected by AI if they can become AI proficient. There is not a company in the world that is going to fire employees who are the best at using AI internally. Instead, companies are going to promote these people, give them more responsibilities, and likely pay them more money over time. Don’t sit around and be disrupted. Learn to use the tools and technology. This is true whether you are a professional investor or a casual individual investor. Superhuman intelligence is now abundantly available. The only limiting factor is your curiosity and persistence. Before I let you go, I highly suggest subscribing to ProCap Insights. We built an AI system to dig through mountains of data to identify unique or undiscovered insights, then the AI analyzes the data, fact checks the information, and writes the full report without human intervention. The company published a ton of research this week, including 3 stocks that could benefit if oil falls below $80 , 2 stocks Meta inadvertently boosted with its new AI model , 2 stocks that could rally big with stagflation signals flashing , and an airline stock that will fly if the Iran conflict doesn’t end soon . If you subscribed before midnight tonight, you will get 60% off an annual subscription. Subscribe for 60% today I hope you found this letter valuable. Have a great end to your weekend and I will talk to everyone tomorrow. - Anthony J. Pompliano Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)