The article discusses bitcoin's potential role in a us-iran ceasefire, which, if true, would mark a significant geopolitical use case for bitcoin. this could elevate its perceived value and utility beyond speculation, potentially driving demand.
The potential use of bitcoin in a major geopolitical agreement, coupled with the simultaneous launch of a bitcoin etf by a major institution like morgan stanley, creates a strong positive sentiment. these factors suggest increased adoption, utility, and demand for bitcoin.
The implications of bitcoin being used in international relations and the continued push for institutional adoption through etfs are long-term developments that could shape bitcoin's future value proposition and market trajectory.
Today’s Letter Is Brought To You By Figure ! Figure’s building the future of capital markets through blockchain with $20B unlocked in equity. Use Democratized Prime to earn ~8.5% APY, a one of a kind DeFi product where your crypto earns for you against RWA (real world assets). Figure also offers one of the lowest rates on their Crypto Backed Loans at 8% @ 50% LTV. Sign up now and earn $50 when you make your first deposit, earn ~8.5% yield, or take out a Crypto Backed Loan with their low rates today! 1 Claim Your $50 Bonus To investors, The US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire earlier this week contingent on a few conditions, including the Strait of Hormuz being reopened. Iran seems to be in agreement to open the Strait, but the Financial Times is reporting that the Middle Eastern country wants to be paid a tax of $1 per barrel of oil that goes through the waterway. That demand does not seem out of the ordinary. But the FT also reported that Iran is demanding payment in bitcoin for this tax. That detail is potentially explosive if true. This would be the first time that warring countries would be publicly agreeing to use bitcoin as a key component of a peace deal. The development is not shocking to the bitcoin community though. We have been saying for years that bitcoin is a digital, decentralized, non-sovereign, neutral asset that can be used by anyone in the world. If two countries don’t trust each other, they can use bitcoin to settle transactions of economic value. The US has shown that dollars can’t be used for this purpose after the leading western nation aggressively sanctioned Russia and its oligarchs after the invasion of Ukraine. The US and multi-national corporations are not going to pay in yuan, yen, euro, or other fiat currencies. Gold is too difficult to use because of the lack of portability and speed in a transaction. One other option would have been stablecoins, but those can be frozen, blocked, and confiscated as well. That risk is likely too high for Iran, which finds itself fighting against the greatest military the world has ever assembled. This is not the first time that bitcoin has been used on the geopolitical stage. China’s hot and cold relationship with mining over the years has been well documented, along with various one-off bi-lateral trade agreements that were settled in bitcoin. The United States intelligence agencies have been using bitcoin for awhile as well. I sat down with Michael Ellis, the deputy director of the CIA , last year and he explained to me how the agency looks at the digital currency: Now the counter-argument to the importance of Iran’s announcement would be that the gulf country is not actually accepting bitcoin. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes eloquently wrote “I’ll believe Iran is charging a toll in bitcoin when I see a [transaction] linked to a vessel’s toll payment. Otherwise it’s just the IRGC trolling the western filthy fiat financial system.” But regardless of whether the Iran government is actually accepting bitcoin or not, the narrative has gone viral globally and that may be the most important aspect of the story. Bitcoin is an idea’s time that has come. How do we know? Because on the same day that news broke of bitcoin’s role in a peace deal to end a war, Morgan Stanley launched their bitcoin ETF. Morgan Stanley is one of the largest financial institutions in the world and happens to be one of the longest standing investment banks on Wall Street. It may appear Morgan Stanley is late to the game, but the organization is coming in hot and heavy. They are launching with a expense fee of 0.14%, which is the lowest in the market. That type of pricing pressure should force the hand of other players in the market, which could lead to more inflows over time. I find it interesting that we are still getting “barbell news” in the bitcoin industry. The traditional financial firms want bitcoin to be a grown up asset they can package and sell to their clients, while the most violent criminals and terrorists in the world are flocking to the asset as a last resort to solve their unique problems. It may be uncomfortable for people to recognize but this is what true product-market fit looks like. Bitcoin is attractive to different people for different reasons. If you need to store economic value for a period of time, bitcoin is a great option. If you need to prevent others from taking that economic value, bitcoin may in the only option. It is exciting to see how far we have come in the last 15 years or so. But something tells me this story is not over and the next 15 years will be even more impressive. I hope you all have a great day. I will talk to everyone tomorrow. - Anthony J. Pompliano Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management Will Bitcoin Skyrocket When Iran War Ends? I sat down to explain why bitcoin is holding strong while stocks, bonds, and gold decline amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. I also breakdown ETF demand, long-term holder accumulation, and why bitcoin continues to benefit from global liquidity and money printing, while addressing common risks and criticisms. Podcast Sponsors Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure ! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!) Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. 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