These 3 Signals Mark Bear Market Exits—Bitcoin Has Yet To Trigger Them

Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing How Our News is Made Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Ad discliamer Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio. Bitcoin is still far from triggering the three signals that have historically appeared at the end of bear markets, according to analyst Willy Woo. Bitcoin Is Still Trading Far Below The Cost Basis Of Recent Investors In a new post on X, analyst Willy Woo has listed the three things that tend to happen at the end of bear markets . The first signal is the price breaking the cost basis of the short-term holders (STHs) . The STHs refer to the investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. As such, the cost basis of this group represents the break-even level of the recent buyers of the cryptocurrency. Related Reading Bitcoin Sharks & Whales Capitulate: Realized Loss Exceeds $200M 3 days ago As the below chart shared by Woo shows, Bitcoin fell under the STH cost basis during past bear markets and maintained there, suggesting that the new entrants remained underwater . The price of the coin has also plunged under this level in the current cycle | Source: @willywoo on X As is visible in the graph, Bitcoin also slipped under the STH cost basis alongside the bearish shift in Q4 2025 and since then, it has stayed below this level, with the gap widening over time. Historically, the cryptocurrency’s price has broken back above the STH cost basis at the end of bear markets (as highlighted with circles in the chart). Another thing that has tended to follow this phase shift is fresh buying from investors. This second signal gives rise to the third one: a reversal of trend in the average acquisition level of the STHs. From the chart, it’s apparent that the STH cost basis shows a downtrend during bear markets. This is a natural result of coins changing hands at the lower bear market levels, pushing the average break-even level lower. As a transition away from a major bearish phase occurs, investors start buying at higher prices, causing the STH cost basis to see an upward reversal. Related Reading Ethereum Drops Nearly 5% As Familiar Leverage Setup Plays Out 4 days ago Under the post, a user asked asked Woo to elaborate. To which, the analyst responded with: Given price is not even close to the cost basis of recent investors, and that cost basis is dropping each day… there’s no point in buying until a cross becomes imminent. Bear markets are about patience. At the moment, the Bitcoin STH cost basis is floating around $81,000, implying that the recent buyers are holding a net unrealized loss of more than 14%. It now remains to be seen how long it will be before the cryptocurrency will be able to find a break back above the level. BTC Price Bitcoin ended last week under the $67,000 level, but the digital asset has kicked back up to start Monday, with its price recovering to $69,500. The trend in the price of the coin over the last five days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com