Geopolitical tensions in the middle east are increasing oil prices, which in turn raises inflation expectations and reduces the likelihood of interest rate cuts. this macro environment, combined with a divergence in institutional inflows and selling pressure from large holders, is creating uncertainty for bitcoin. thin liquidity over the holiday weekend could exacerbate price swings.
Bitcoin is currently trading in a tight range, struggling to break above $67,000. while institutional inflows into etfs are positive, overall demand is weakening, and large holders are distributing assets. the upcoming holiday and thin liquidity increase the potential for volatility but do not provide a clear directional bias at this moment.
The immediate price action is likely to be influenced by the upcoming long holiday weekend, which typically means thinner liquidity and increased potential for short-term volatility. longer-term price trends will depend on the resolution of geopolitical tensions and broader macro-economic shifts.
Crypto Daybook Americas Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Crypto snoozes into Good Friday as oil and macro stir: Crypto Daybook Americas Your day-ahead look for April 3, 2026 By Francisco Rodrigues , Omkar Godbole | Edited by Oliver Knight Apr 3, 2026, 11:15 a.m. Make preferred on Crypto calm as oil stirs (Gerhard Traschütz/Pixabay) What to know : If you're not already subscribed to the newsletter email, click here . By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) Bitcoin BTC $ 66,850.55 is stuck in a tight range near $66,600 ahead of the Good Friday holiday, as geopolitical tensions and shifting macro expectations keep prices contained. While the cryptocurrency saw a slight rise in the last 24 hour period it failed to break above $67,000. It’s struggling as U.S. President Donald Trump signaled a harsher stance on Iran, now threatening the country’s infrastructure. Brent crude hit $120 per barrel on spot markets, levels not seen since 2008, over the ongoing crisis and its effects on the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil shipping that has effectively been shut down. That surge in energy prices pushed up inflation expectations and undercut the case for rate cuts, a key support for bitcoin’s recent rally. Inflation in Europe has already risen to 2.5%, driven by energy costs. The pressure has revealed a divide in market structure. Institutional inflows into bitcoin ETFs remain consistent, with $22 million in net inflows this week. But data from CryptoQuant show total apparent demand has flipped negative, with large holders distributing more than they accumulate. Wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have shed nearly 188,000 BTC since last year’s peak, the data shows. Nearly half of all bitcoin in circulation is, at current prices, trading at a loss. Heading into the long weekend, liquidity is set to remain thin. That leaves bitcoin exposed to potentially higher volatility based on developments in the Middle East or macro-linked statements. Stay alert! Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today What to Watch For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's " Crypto Week Ahead ". Crypto Nothing scheduled. Macro April 3, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls for March est. 48K (Prev. -92K) April 3, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Unemployment Rate for March est. 4.5% (Prev. 4.4%) April 3, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. ISM Services PMI for March (Prev. 56.1) Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) Nothing scheduled. Token Events For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's " Crypto Week Ahead ". Governance votes & calls SSV Network DAO is voting across two proposals to integrate ENS names for core protocol contracts to enhance security against phishing, and to establish a soft fee floor for public operators to ensure economic sustainability. Voting ends April 3. Unlocks No major unlocks. Token Launches No major launches. Conferences For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's " Crypto Week Ahead ". Day 1 of 3: ETHGlobal Cannes 2026 (Cannes, France) Market Movements BTC is down 0.35% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $66,785.73 (24hrs: +0.65%) ETH is unchanged at $2,058.20 (24hrs: +0.94%) CoinDesk 20 is up 0.26% at 1,902.32 (24hrs: +0.80%) Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bps at 2.77% BTC funding rate is at -0.0007% (-0.7731% annualized) on Binance DXY is unchanged at 99.99 Gold futures are up 1.07% at $4,701.30 Silver futures are up 0.60% at $73.17 Nikkei 225 closed up 1.26% at 53,123.49 Hang Seng closed down 0.70% at 25,116.53 FTSE 100 is unchanged at 10,436.29 Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.26% at 5,678.00 DJIA closed on Thursday down 0.13% at 46,504.67 S&P 500 closed up 0.11% at 6,582.69 Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.18% at 21,879.18 S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.46% at 33,108.20 U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1 bps at 4.31% E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.12% at 6,613.00 E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.10% at 24,167.25 E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 0.10% at 46,678.00 Bitcoin Stats BTC Dominance: 58.54% (-0.24%) Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.030821 (0.23%) Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 997 EH/s Hashprice (spot): $30.68 Total Fees: 2.54 BTC / $170,134 CME Futures Open Interest: 106,230 BTC BTC priced in gold: 15.9 oz BTC vs gold market cap: 4.46% Technical Analysis Tether's dominance rate. (TradingView) The chart shows daily swings in tether's dominance rate in candlestick format. The dominance rate represents the share of stablecoin tether in the total crypto market. The dominance rate is rising again after a temporary pullback, or counter-trend correction. This breakout suggests that the broader uptrend in dominance has likely resumed. This has bearish implications for the broader market, as dollar-pegged assets like Tether typically gain dominance during market-wide sell-offs. Crypto Equities Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $171.46 (–0.88%), unchanged in after-hours Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $17.64 (+1.55%), +0.28% at $17.69 MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.71 (+8.33%), –1.03% at $8.62 Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.86 (+2.47%), unchanged at $12.86 Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.23 (+6.08%), –0.62% at $16.13 CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.79 (+1.97%), unchanged at $8.80 Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $6.10 (–8.68%), –0.80% at $6.05 CoinShares Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $35.76 (+2.58%), –0.17% at $35.70 Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $90.26 (–0.53%), +0.60% at $90.80 Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.37 (+3.71%), –0.19% at $36.30 Crypto Treasury Companies Strategy (MSTR): closed at $119.83 (–2.40%), +0.34% at $120.24 Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $9.75 (–4.04%), +0.10% at $9.76 SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.19 (–4.18%), +0.32% at $6.21 Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.98 (–1.32%), –2.12% at $0.95 Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.12 (–0.88%), unchanged at $1.12 ETF Flows Spot BTC ETFs Daily net flow: $9 million Cumulative net flows: $55.93 billion Total BTC holdings ~ 1.28 million Spot ETH ETFs Daily net flow: -$71.2 million Cumulative net flows: $11.51 billion Total ETH holdings ~ 5.69 million Source: Farside Investors While You Were Sleeping French ship crosses Strait of Hormuz in first Western European transit during Iran war (euronews): The news could encourage other carriers to resume operations if the corridor proves reliable in the coming days and it follows Iran's deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi announcement of a deal with Oman to secure traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. repatriates Chinese drug fugitive in a sign of stabilizing ties (The Wall Street Journal): This is the first case of its kind in recent years and is described as a rare move that points to cooperation ahead of the planned Trump-Xi summit next month. Iran strikes Gulf energy sites as Trump warns of further attacks (Bloomberg): Iran targeted more sites in Arab Gulf states, including in Kuwait Friday morning, hours after Trump issued fresh threats against Iranian infrastructure to pressure Tehran to start peace negotiations. Japan turns up FX heat as volatility rises, signals readiness to act (Reuters): The yen, trading near the psychologically key 160-per-dollar mark, lingered at levels that stoke concerns of market intervention, highlighting growing unease over the speed and scale of its decline. Crypto Daybook Americas More For You Encryption Supremacy: Zcash and Privacy in the Age of Scale By CoinDesk Research Mar 31, 2026 Commissioned by GenZcash Most crypto privacy models weaken as blockchain data grows. Encryption-based models like Zcash strengthen. CoinDesk Research maps the five privacy approaches and examines the widening gap. Why it matters : As blockchain adoption scales, the metadata available to machine learning models scales with it. Obfuscation-based privacy approaches are structurally degrading as a result. This report provides a comprehensive comparison of all five major crypto privacy architectures and a framework for evaluating which models remain durable as AI capabilities improve. View Full Report More For You Audit admin keys, not just code, expert says after $200 million Drift exploit By Omkar Godbole , Francisco Rodrigues | Edited by Oliver Knight Apr 2, 2026 Your day-ahead look for April 2, 2026 What to know : If you're not already subscribed to the newsletter email, click here . Read full story Latest Crypto News Crypto consolidates as volatility cools and futures markets tilt bearish 44 minutes ago Naoris Protocol's quantum-resistant blockchain goes live as Bitcoin and Ethereum face 'Q-Day' threats 1 hour ago Bitcoin heads into holiday weekend exposed as ETF and CME flows go offline 7 hours ago Todd Blanche, author of DOJ crypto enforcement memo, is now interim AG 10 hours ago Crypto market structure bill release pushed back as industries view revised stablecoin yield compromise this week 13 hours ago Here’s why bitcoin’s drop below $68,000 raises the risk of a crash under $60,000 16 hours ago Top Stories CFTC sues Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut over states' sports prediction market efforts 18 hours ago Coinbase wins initial bank regulator nod for trust charter, boosting custody push 18 hours ago Bitcoin trims big loss, stocks erase 2% decline, as Iran signals cooperation on key shipping route 20 hours ago How a Solana feature designed for convenience let attackers drain more than $270 million from Drift 20 hours ago North Koreans hackers likely behind $286 million Drift Protocol exploit: Elliptic 20 hours ago The 'time pain' trap: why bitcoin’s bear market might need a few more months of ‘boring’ to hit a true floor 21 hours ago In this article BTC BTC $ 66,850.55 ◢ 0.96 %