The 'time pain' trap: why bitcoin’s bear market might need a few more months of ‘boring’ to hit a true floor

Markets Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email The 'time pain' trap: why bitcoin’s bear market might need a few more months of ‘boring’ to hit a true floor Long term holder trends suggest a maturing bear market, yet extended consolidation could test investor patience. By James Van Straten | Edited by Jamie Crawley Apr 2, 2026, 1:34 p.m. Make preferred on Realized Cap HODL Waves (Glassnode) What to know : Long term holders now control around 80% of bitcoin supply, approaching the 85% level historically seen at bear market bottoms. Even if a price floor is forming, past cycles suggest months of sideways, range bound trading are likely before a sustained recovery begins The two things most cryptocurrency investors are pondering are how much lower can bitcoin BTC $ 66,060.58 go and how much longer this bear market could last. The price pain aspect has been discussed widely , but the time-based dimension is another question in itself. Price pain refers to sharp drawdowns or volatility that force participants out of positions, while time pain reflects slow, range-bound conditions that exhaust both bulls and bears through lack of direction. Bitcoin is currently trading below $66,000, down over 3% in the past 24 hours and roughly 45% below its October all-time high, an almost six-month bear market. One indicator pointing toward continued time pain is the Realized Cap HODL Waves from Glassnode. This metric groups bitcoin supply by the last time coins moved, with each band representing different holding periods, and weights them by realized price , the average price at which coins last transacted on chain. Historically, bear market bottoms have coincided with long-term holders, those holding for six months or more, controlling at least 85% of supply. Typically, price bottoms form first, and only several months later does long-term holder supply approach these high levels, indicating these investors bought at depressed prices and held through the bear market. Currently, long term holders account for about 80% of supply. If this trend continues, the market may be nearing a bottoming phase, though several months of consolidation are likely still ahead. Bitcoin News More For You Encryption Supremacy: Zcash and Privacy in the Age of Scale By CoinDesk Research Mar 31, 2026 Commissioned by GenZcash Most crypto privacy models weaken as blockchain data grows. Encryption-based models like Zcash strengthen. CoinDesk Research maps the five privacy approaches and examines the widening gap. Why it matters : As blockchain adoption scales, the metadata available to machine learning models scales with it. Obfuscation-based privacy approaches are structurally degrading as a result. This report provides a comprehensive comparison of all five major crypto privacy architectures and a framework for evaluating which models remain durable as AI capabilities improve. View Full Report More For You Startup lets researchers mine blockchain tasks on a quantum computer for the first time By Omkar Godbole | Edited by Shaurya Malwa 1 hour ago Built with advice and hardware access from D-Wave, the testnet has drawn 13,000 sign-ups and early work from six research teams, but remains an experimental environment rather than a live mainnet. What to know : Postquant Labs has launched a blockchain testnet that lets quantum processors, GPUs and CPUs work side by side so researchers can test whether quantum computing offers real advantages for blockchain tasks. Built with advice and hardware access from D-Wave, the testnet has drawn 13,000 sign-ups and early work from six... Read full story Latest Crypto News CoinDesk 20 performance update: index falls 4.5% as all constituents trade lower 23 minutes ago Coinbase’s AI payments system joins Linux Foundation, gathers support from Google, Stripe, AWS and others 35 minutes ago Startup lets researchers mine blockchain tasks on a quantum computer for the first time 1 hour ago SoFi announces 24/7 banking hub that blends traditional cash with crypto 1 hour ago Europe's first blockchain IPO is here: France’s new exchange is taking aerospace firm public onchain 1 hour ago Audit admin keys, not just code, expert says after $200 million Drift exploit 2 hours ago Top Stories The bitcoin treasury boom is unwinding as some companies and governments sell holdings 3 hours ago Bitcoin, ether, solana slide further as Trump threatens to hit Iran 'extremely hard' 9 hours ago Solana DeFi platform Drift confirms 'active attack' as $200M+ leaves platform 18 hours ago Three key signals to watch as bitcoin whipsaws on Trump’s Iran rhetoric 8 hours ago Metaplanet acquires 5,075 BTC, jumps to third largest bitcoin treasury company 4 hours ago Bitcoin’s crashes are shrinking, and Wall Street is starting to notice Apr 1, 2026 In this article BTC BTC $ 66,060.58 ◢ 2.98 %