Bitcoin's latest fear unlocked as rate hikes bets rise and bond markets crumble

Markets Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Bitcoin's latest fear unlocked as rate hikes bets rise and bond markets crumble For now, surging oil prices and persistent geopolitical tensions are driving inflation fears and weakening traditional safe-haven assets. By James Van Straten , Stephen Alpher | Edited by Stephen Alpher Mar 20, 2026, 2:51 p.m. Make us preferred on Google What to know : Markets are now seriously pricing in the odds of an imminent U.S. rate hike, a far cry from weeks ago, when the debate was about how many Fed rate cuts there would be in 2026. Oil is up 50% since the Iran conflict began, pressuring inflation and growth. The U.K.'s 10-year gilt yield topped 5% for the first time since 2008 as higher-than-expected borrowing added to the oil price pressure. Only weeks ago, the interest rate debate in the U.S. centered on just how many Federal Reserve rate cuts there would be in 2026. But as the economy shows only faint signs of slowing, inflation remains above the central bank's 2% target, and oil prices are up 50% in three weeks, rate traders are beginning to contemplate a rate hike as soon as April. According to CME FedWatch , the chances of the Fed tightening policy at its next meeting in April have risen to 12%. That's up from 0% one week ago and an even sharper reversal from two months ago, when the conventional wisdom said a rate cut was likely that month. That change has come as U.S. economic statisitcs are showing only faint signs of slowing growth and the latest data has inflation continuing to run well above the Fed's 2% target. That data, of course, came prior to the Iran war and the subsequent 50% surge in oil prices. The long end of the bond curve has sold off sharply alongside, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury note up another 10 basis points on Friday to 4.38% versus under 4% at the start of March. The bond selloff is global. In the U.K., 10-year gilt yields have jumped above 5%, up 15% in the past month, and are at their highest since 2008. Bitcoin ahead of the curve? Bloomberg reports the S&P 500 is on track for a fourth straight weekly decline, now down around 5% since late February. The Nasdaq is down similarly, including a 1.2% drop on Friday. "Bitcoin has once again acted as the canary in the macro coal mine," said Andre Dragosch, European Head of Research at Bitwise, notes, “At current levels, bitcoin is already pricing a recession, while many traditional assets are not," he added. Bitcoin continues to hover around $70,000 and, aside from oil, remains one of the best-performing assets since the war began, while metals continue to show weakening price action, with gold down a further 2% on Friday. Bitcoin News More For You Coinbase introduces stock perpetual futures contracts for non-U.S. customers By Francisco Rodrigues | Edited by Sheldon Reback 2 hours ago The contracts trade 24/7, are cash-settled in USDC and allow for up to 10-times leverage on single-stock contracts and 20-times on ETF products. What to know : Coinbase said it's offering perpetual stock futures to non-U.S. traders, allowing them to take leveraged positions on large-cap companies including Apple, Microsoft and Tesla, as well as on ETFs tracking the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes. The contracts trade 24/7, are cash-settled in USDC and allow for up to 10-times leverage on single-stock contracts and 20-times on ETF products. The move is part of Coinbase's push to become the "Everything Exchange," which has led it to expand its product offerings. Read full story Latest Crypto News Why CoinDesk PitchFest matters heading into Miami 23 minutes ago Crypto wallet maker Ledger taps former Circle exec as CFO to help lead IPO push 55 minutes ago Kalshi valuation doubles to $22 billion in latest funding round: Bloomberg 1 hour ago CoinDesk 20 performance update: Aptos (APT) gains 6.3% as index rises 1 hour ago Coinbase introduces stock perpetual futures contracts for non-U.S. customers 2 hours ago Iran war volatility is driving oil trading boom on Hyperliquid, says JPMorgan 2 hours ago Top Stories Crypto market steadies as derivatives signal caution, macro pressure builds 4 hours ago Bitcoin’s price action looks dangerously similar to the pattern that sent it crashing to $60,000 7 hours ago Crypto markets – and the American people – deserve clarity 18 hours ago Crypto Clarity Act inches toward Senate hearing as lawmakers weigh legislative trades 16 hours ago Wall Street heavyweight Cantor among investment banks pitching FalconX for its potential IPO 19 hours ago