Bitcoin’s rally runs into 'sell the news' risk ahead of Fed decision

Markets Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Bitcoin’s rally runs into 'sell the news' risk ahead of Fed decision Two Prime data shows post-meeting weakness dominates, even as markets price a Fed hold and limited rate cuts ahead. By James Van Straten | Edited by Oliver Knight Mar 18, 2026, 10:40 a.m. Make us preferred on Google What to know : Bitcoin has fallen after seven of eight 2025 FOMC meetings, highlighting a consistent “sell the news” pattern despite varying policy outcomes. Futures markets price just one 25 bps cut this year, while rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions risk keeping inflation elevated and limiting Fed flexibility Bitcoin heads into the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting with strong momentum, trading above $74,000 after eight consecutive daily gains . However, data compiled by bitcoin lender Two Prime suggests this strength may mask a recurring pattern, FOMC meetings have historically acted as short term bearish catalysts for BTC. Looking at 2025, bitcoin posted negative returns in the 48 hours following seven of eight FOMC meetings. Even in May, when BTC rallied sharply, the broader trend points to consistent post meeting weakness regardless of whether the Fed held rates or shifted policy direction. This reinforces the idea that the event itself, rather than the outcome, drives volatility. BTC Change After Each Fed Meeting (Two Prime) The upcoming decision is unlikely to deliver surprises. Markets are pricing a near certainty, around 99% , that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in the 350 to 375 basis point range. Meanwhile, the futures market is only pricing in a single 25 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, reinforcing a higher for longer backdrop. Even with a new Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh , expected to take over in June. Macro risks further complicate the picture. Escalating conflict in the Middle East and oil prices hovering around $100 a barrel are likely to put upward pressure on CPI inflation numbers, limiting the Fed’s flexibility to ease policy on top of a weakening jobs market. With bitcoin entering the meeting in a buoyant state, the risk shifts toward a classic sell the news reaction. Bitcoin News Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) More For You Bitcoin holds steady at $74,000 as traders turn cautious before Fed meeting By Oliver Knight , Omkar Godbole | Edited by Sheldon Reback 3 minutes ago BTC consolidated with subdued volatility, while derivatives positioning and macro uncertainty signaled cautious market sentiment. What to know : Bitcoin is hovering around $74,200 after peaking near $76,000 on Tuesday, with trading volume down 33%, suggesting a pause in bullish momentum as traders take profits and await signals for a clearer direction. Stalled futures open interest and slightly negative funding rates across major tokens indicate reduced appetite for new longs and a tilt toward defensive or short positioning ahead of the Fed meeting. Markets remain in a risk-sensitive holding pattern due to geopolitical tensions and Fed uncertainty, even as altcoins like ZEC and MORPHO outperform and the altcoin season index hits a six-month high. Read full story Latest Crypto News Bitcoin holds steady at $74,000 as traders turn cautious before Fed meeting 3 minutes ago Bitcoin is stuck below $75,000 even after landmark SEC, CFTC crypto rules 1 hour ago Bitrefill accuses North Korea-linked Lazarus hacker group for compromising 18,500 purchase records 3 hours ago XRP hovers near $14 million options battleground that could sway trading 4 hours ago Stratton wins Illinois Senate primary, defeating crypto-backed Krishnamoorthi 7 hours ago Senator Tim Scott says market structure negotiations are advancing 13 hours ago Top Stories U.S. SEC issues first-ever definitions for what crypto assets are securities 14 hours ago Bitcoin's rally faces key hurdle with Wednesday's Fed meeting 14 hours ago Mastercard's $1.8 billion deal 'a clear answer' to a massive shift in the global payment war 15 hours ago Arizona Attorney General files criminal charges against prediction market Kalshi 16 hours ago Strategy’s latest massive bitcoin purchase offers insight into its evolving funding model 18 hours ago Sam Altman's World teams up with Coinbase to prove there is a real person behind every AI transaction 19 hours ago