How the war in Iran and trader positioning could be behind the surge in Circle's stock

Markets Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email How the war in Iran and trader positioning could be behind the surge in Circle's stock Shares were up another 9.7% on Monday, bringing them nearly to double over the past month. By Will Canny | Edited by Stephen Alpher Mar 9, 2026, 8:49 p.m. Make us preferred on Google Circle stock rallies as Iran war lifts oil, inflation expectations. (CoinDesk) What to know : Circle shares rose about 10% Monday and are now higher by 86% over the past month. Analysts suggest the war in Iran and its impact on oil prices could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, thereby benefiting the stablecoin issuer. Also at work was heavy bearish trader positioning in the shares and the need for those shorts to be covered after the company reported solid fourth-quarter results. Already on a tear ahead of the war in Iran, Circle (CRCL) might be an unlikely beneficiary of the conflict. The stock rose 10% on Monday, outperforming other crypto-linked equities, with the shares now up by 86% over the past month, though they remain sharply lower since their peak post-IPO frenzy last summer. Japanese bank Mizuho said part of the Circle rally reflects the jump in oil prices following the escalation in Middle East tensions. Higher crude prices could reignite inflationary pressures, potentially reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Indeed, oil prices have surged since hostilities erupted in the Gulf, with WTI crude up roughly 35% since Feb. 28. Higher energy prices tend to fuel inflation and can limit central banks’ ability to cut interest rates. Positioning has surely played a role as well. While the company reported solid growth in USDC supply in its fourth-quarter earnings, analysts say the magnitude of the move likely reflected a crowded short trade ahead of the release. “The magnitude of the move wasn’t purely about the headline numbers. Positioning was the real catalyst,” said Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research. According to his data, hedge funds had accumulated sizable bearish bets ahead of the report. That setup created what Thielen described as a “high-probability short squeeze rather than a fundamental re-rating.” Short interest currently stands at about 13% of the float, equivalent to roughly two days to cover, according to FactSet data. Read more: Circle moves $68 million in just 30 minutes by using its own stablecoin for internal payments Circle Stablecoins Iran Oil Interest Rates More For You Pudgy Penguins: Challenging the Pokemon and Disney Legacy in the Global IP Race By CoinDesk Research Feb 27, 2026 Commissioned by Pudgy Penguins CoinDesk Research looks into how Pudgy Penguins disrupts traditional toys market via a phygital model. With 2M+ units sold, they scale via global partnerships and events. What to know : Disrupting a Stagnant Market : Pudgy Penguins is utilizing a "Negative CAC" model to challenge the traditional $31.7B licensed toy industry by treating physical merchandise as a profitable user acquisition tool rather than just a final product. View Full Report More For You Crypto and stocks add to gains as Trump says Iran war could be over soon By Krisztian Sandor , Helene Braun | Edited by Stephen Alpher 1 hour ago It's been a historic 24 hours for crude oil, which soared to $120 per barrel overnight on Iran worries, but has plunged back to just above $80. What to know : Crypto assets, including crypto-related stocks extended their gains on Monday afternoon after U.S. President Donald Trump said the war with Iran could be over soon. U.S. equities rose sharply following the news, erasing early morning losses. Similarly, crude oil fell to $86 from around $116 as a result of Trump's comment. Read full story Latest Crypto News Crypto and stocks add to gains as Trump says Iran war could be over soon 1 hour ago Bitcoin could be the big winner if the U.S.-Iran conflict drags on for months 4 hours ago Bitcoin rises to $69,000, stocks reverse big early losses, as crude oil sinks back below $100 4 hours ago Josh Swihart's Zcash Open Development Lab raises $25 million in seed funding 5 hours ago Global insurance broker Aon tests stablecoin payments with Coinbase, Paxos 5 hours ago Stock market volatility hits one-year high, possibly marking bitcoin bottom 5 hours ago Top Stories 'Mini crypto winter' nearly over, says Tom Lee as Bitmine ramps up pace of ether acquisition 6 hours ago Michael Saylor's Strategy made $1.3 billion bitcoin purchase last week 8 hours ago Nasdaq and Kraken are teaming up to let you trade tokenized stocks 9 hours ago U.S. isn’t really exposed to oil shocks and that might be helping bitcoin stay resilient 14 hours ago Bitcoin stays calm while other markets panic: key levels to watch 9 hours ago Nigel Farage takes 6% stake in UK bitcoin treasury firm Stack BTC 11 hours ago