Bitcoin could face deeper downside as odds of U.S. market meltdown rise to 35%

Markets Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Bitcoin could face deeper downside as odds of U.S. market meltdown rise to 35% Veteran strategist Ed Yardeni raised his probability of a stock market crash this year as oil tops $100, the dollar posts its best week in a year, and the Iran conflict expands to Saudi Arabia. By Shaurya Malwa | Edited by Sam Reynolds Updated Mar 9, 2026, 5:13 a.m. Published Mar 9, 2026, 5:04 a.m. Make us preferred on Google What to know : Bitcoin is holding steady around $67,000 despite sharp declines in global equities, surging volatility and rising oil prices. Market strategist Ed Yardeni has raised the odds of a U.S. market meltdown to 35 percent as higher oil prices threaten both inflation and employment. Research from NYDIG suggests that only about a quarter of Bitcoin's price moves can be explained by its correlation with equities, with the rest driven by crypto-specific factors. Bitcoin is holding up better than it probably should. The largest cryptocurrency traded at $67,378 on Monday morning , up 1.1% over the past 24 hours and essentially flat on the week, while the world around it deteriorated sharply. Among majors, ether rose 2.3% to $1,981, hovering just below $2,000. BNB gained 1.4% to $624. Dogecoin added 1.8% to $0.09. Solana climbed 1.8% to $83.69 but remains down 1.5% on the week, still the weakest major over a seven-day basis. XRP was flat at $1.35, down 1% on the week. S&P 500 futures fell more than 2% in Asian trading. The VIX surged to its highest level since April's tariff turmoil. Oil is above $100. The dollar just posted its steepest weekly gain in a year. Meanwhile, veteran strategist Ed Yardeni raised the probability of a U.S. market meltdown to 35%, up from 20%, while slashing the odds of a melt-up to just 5%. "The US economy and stock market are stuck between Iran and a hard place," Yardeni wrote. "If the oil shock persists, the Fed's dual mandate would be stuck between the increasing risk of higher inflation and rising unemployment." In meltdown conditions, risk assets across the board tend to suffer as investors pull capital from anything with volatility and move into cash, Treasuries, or the dollar. Bitcoin has historically not been immune to that dynamic, falling alongside equities during every major risk-off episode since 2020 despite its reputation as a hedge. Elsewhere, NYDIG's head of research Greg Cipolaro offered a framework for understanding bitcoin's price action compared to U.S. stocks in a Friday note . Cipolaro argued that bitcoin's recent parallel movement with U.S. software stocks reflects "shared exposure to the current macro regime" rather than structural convergence. Statistically, only about 25% of bitcoin's price movements are explained by correlation to equities. The other 75% is driven by factors outside traditional stock indices, he said. The broader equity picture remains grim. MSCI's global equity gauge fell 3.7% last week, with Asia bearing the worst of it. South Korea has still not fully recovered from its record two-day plunge. Hedge funds have been boosting short positions in U.S. equity ETFs. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields jumped six basis points as traders priced in higher inflation from the oil shock. The U.S. has fared better than most on the equity side, with the S&P 500 down only 2% last week, partly because American energy self-sufficiency insulates it more than Asian or European markets. But the 2% drop in futures on Monday suggests that the buffer is thinning. More For You Pudgy Penguins: Challenging the Pokemon and Disney Legacy in the Global IP Race By CoinDesk Research Feb 27, 2026 Commissioned by Pudgy Penguins CoinDesk Research looks into how Pudgy Penguins disrupts traditional toys market via a phygital model. With 2M+ units sold, they scale via global partnerships and events. What to know : Disrupting a Stagnant Market : Pudgy Penguins is utilizing a "Negative CAC" model to challenge the traditional $31.7B licensed toy industry by treating physical merchandise as a profitable user acquisition tool rather than just a final product. View Full Report More For You Oil shorts on Hyperliquid get wiped out as crude surges 30% on Iran escalation By Shaurya Malwa | Edited by Omkar Godbole 19 minutes ago Tokenized crude oil futures saw their largest liquidation event on crypto venues as the conflict expanded to Saudi Arabia and Gulf oil production collapsed. What to know : Crude oil’s historic price spike, driven by a sharp escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict, triggered nearly $40 million in liquidations on Hyperliquid’s tokenized oil contracts, with about $36.9 million coming from short positions. The surge pushed Hyperliquid’s CL-USDC contract as high as $114.77 and helped make oil one of the platform’s largest single-asset liquidation events outside bitcoin and ether, even as broader crypto markets suffered a risk-off sell-off. Read full story Latest Crypto News Oil shorts on Hyperliquid get wiped out as crude surges 30% on Iran escalation 19 minutes ago Oil futures surge 20% past $110 as war fears hammer Asian stocks, bitcoin steady near $67K 1 hour ago Bitcoin tumbles below $66,000 as oil prices explode nearly 20% higher 6 hours ago Crypto’s Rock ’n’ Roll Era Is Over 10 hours ago Bitcoin is still a great way to diversify portfolio even if it trades like a tech stock, analyst says 13 hours ago Market structure state of play: State of Crypto 15 hours ago Top Stories Oil leaving Middle East trades over $100 a barrel. Here’s how it could affect bitcoin 15 hours ago Bitcoin dip may not be over as whales sell into retail buying — a bearish signal 23 hours ago Why bitcoin couldn't hold $70,000 despite its best week of Wall Street news in months Mar 6, 2026 Trump's cyber strategy vows to 'support the security' of cryptocurrencies and blockchain Mar 7, 2026 Those who cheered U.S. Bitcoin reserve have spent year watching Trump's order languish Mar 7, 2026 Kalshi, Polymarket seeking $20 billion valuations in fundraising talks: WSJ Mar 7, 2026