An analyst warns that bitcoin must not drop below $63,700, citing a critical on-chain support level. failure to hold this level could lead to significant price declines, potentially down to $57,000 or even $48,700.
The analysis is based on an on-chain data expert's use of the fibonacci-adjusted market mean price indicator, which represents the cost basis of bitcoin holders. while the methodology is specific, the dynamic nature of these levels and the potential for significant price drops warrant caution.
The analyst's warning about a critical support level suggests a bearish outlook if that level is breached. the current price is also showing a slight decline, and a drop below $63,700 would confirm a bearish trend.
The immediate concern is whether bitcoin can hold the $63,700 support level in the short term. if it breaks, the projected price drops would also occur relatively quickly.
Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing How Our News is Made Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Ad discliamer Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio. An on-chain data expert has identified a critical level that the Bitcoin price must not break, or it could be at risk of a significant downturn. Critical Levels For BTC Price: Alphractal CEO On Saturday, March 7, Alphractal founder and CEO Joao Wedson revealed on the social media platform X that the $63,700 level is a crucial support level for the Bitcoin price. The crypto expert analyzed why this price level is critical to the long-term health of the flagship cryptocurrency and other relevant levels to watch. Related Reading Pundit Says XRP Price Could Reach $1,000 By End Of 2026 If This Happens 18 hours ago This on-chain evaluation is based on the Fibonacci-adjusted Market Mean Price, which represents the cost basis, on average, of all Bitcoin holders. This indicator shows BTC’s average cost basis, adjusted with specific Fibonacci ratios; it exhibits mathematical levels of extension or retracement around the BTC average holder’s cost. As observed in the chart above, $63,700 is the next most relevant level for the Bitcoin price, per the Fibonacci-adjusted Market Mean Price . Wedson noted that the premier cryptocurrency cannot afford to break below this key on-chain level, else its price risks embarking on a downward journey on the charts. According to the Alphractal founder, the Bitcoin price could fall to the immediate support cushion around $57,000 if it loses the crucial $63,700. However, there is a chance that the market leader could fall even further to the next Fibonacci-adjusted Market Mean Price around $52,400. Source: @joao_wedson on X In the case where Bitcoin price fails to hold above either of the aforementioned support levels, Wedson identified the $48,700 as the worst-case scenario. A drop to this support level would represent an almost 30% move from the current price point. Wedson noted in his post: It is important to note that these levels are dynamic and update daily, as they adjust according to investor behavior on the blockchain. Wedson appears to have identified the $48,700 as a possible bottom for the premier cryptocurrency in its current bearish phase. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, BTC is valued at around $67,330, reflecting an over 1% price decline in the past 24 hours. With a sloppy performance so far in the first quarter of 2026, the market leader is down by nearly 50% from the current all-time high of around $126,080. Related Reading Bitcoin Losing Strength — $66,000 Now The Line Between Recovery And Crash 1 day ago The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView Featured image by DALL-E, chart from TradingView