Bob loukas is a trader with over 30 years of experience and author of the 60-day cycle theory for btc. his bearish outlook, targeting $49,000 and suggesting a potential 60% drop from its peak, carries significant weight due to his track record.
Loukas's analysis is based on his established '60-day cycle theory' and visual interpretation of the weekly chart, which he describes as 'horrendous' and 'hanging by a thread'. he dismisses counterarguments regarding business cycles and halving, reinforcing his conviction.
Loukas explicitly states that bitcoin 'remains horrendous' on the weekly chart and anticipates 'another large leg down' to his target of $49,000, which implies a substantial price drop from its previous peak.
The analysis is presented as a current outlook on the weekly chart, implying that the projected price movement and assessment are relevant for the near to medium term.
Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available. A popular trader with more than 30 years of experience in financial markets and author of the 60-day cycle theory for BTC, Bob Loukas, released on Monday another outlook of Bitcoin’s price. Unlike the optimistic charts, analyses and predictions that flooded the crypto space after the weekend, his outlook can hardly be called bullish. Advertisement As Loukas writes in the caption to his outlook, despite deep oversold conditions, Bitcoin on the weekly chart "remains horrendous" and from a purely visual perspective, according to the trader, it feels as if it is "hanging by a thread" and preparing another large leg down. He also marked his price target for the leading cryptocurrency at around $49,000 per BTC. Business cycle and halving have no effect on Bitcoin price, argues Loukas Those who tried to argue in the replies, pointing to the business cycle indicator, were told by Loukas that the business cycle indicator is the "biggest cope" in crypto, in his opinion. In addition, he sees no signs of a front-run of the halving, and in the trader's view, the halving has nothing to do with what is happening on the Bitcoin price chart right now. HOT Stories XRP Yield Risks Explained by XRPL Contributor, Schiff Acknowledges Satoshi's Innovation With Bitcoin, Six Macro Events to Define Crypto Market This Week: Morning Crypto Report Ethereum’s Massive Slump Continues With Sixth Straight Red Month As deeply oversold as Bitcoin is, this weekly chart remains horrendous and from a purely visual perspective, feels like it's hanging on by a thread and readying for another big leg lower. pic.twitter.com/dvNwAeoyZ8 — Bob Loukas 🗽 (@BobLoukas) March 2, 2026 As Loukas believes, money moved in early because of the ETF and the pro-crypto government, as well as regulatory changes, but "beneath all of it, it has always been a bear cycle." Advertisement You Might Also Like Mon, 03/02/2026 - 14:34 Bitcoin Two-Year Holders Fall into Extreme Losses as Price Eyes Major Reset By Caroline Amosun At the moment, BTC is still about 25% away from Loukas's target. If his calculations are correct, this would mean that from the peak set in October 2025, Bitcoin could potentially lose a little more than 60%. Advertisement Nevertheless, in contrast to his bearish view on Bitcoin right now, Loukas also stated in a separate post today that he is "still long core positions in stocks" for now. Here he relies on the Bollinger Bands, which are tightening hard, and the longer this continues, the more it implies a breakdown possibility. However, for now, the trader remains bullish on stocks and bearish on BTC. #Bitcoin #Bitcoin Price Prediction #Bob Loukas