How The Iran Attack Will Impact Your Portfolio

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This decision to bomb Iran carries a lot of significance for the President and his administration. Not only are American lives at risk, with at least four American military members reportedly already having been killed, but the President risks losing the support of the American people if things don’t go well on a short timeline. The response from the American people after the first bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities, or the capture of Maduro, was generally positive because the United States was swift in victory. As the saying goes, history is written by the winners, so the President and his team must win. With that said, my job is to help investors understand what is happening in the world and how those developments could impact their investment portfolio. So here is how the current chaos in the Middle East is likely to affect each asset class. First, crude oil should go sharply higher. Iran is a major oil producer and sits along the Strait of Hormuz, which is the chokepoint for ~20% of global oil supply, so any military conflict there immediately prices in supply disruption risk. US equities will likely go lower. War introduces massive uncertainty around corporate earnings, consumer spending, and economic stability, which causes investors to rapidly de-risk by selling stocks. Gold should go much higher because gold is the quintessential safe-haven asset, and geopolitical conflict, especially one involving a major military power, triggers a classic flight-to-safety bid. US Treasuries are likely to see higher prices and lower yields as investors flee risky assets and move into US government bonds (aka the world’s deepest safe-haven market). This drives prices up and yields down in a textbook risk-off move. As for the US Dollar, you should expect a move higher. The dollar strengthens during global crises because it’s the world’s reserve currency and the ultimate liquidity destination when fear spikes. This is known as the “dollar smile” effect. Everyone’s favorite asset class…bitcoin & crypto, will unfortunately have some short-term headwinds because of the Iran situation. Despite the “digital gold” narrative, crypto recently trades as a high-beta risk asset during acute geopolitical shocks, which means it could fall alongside equities as investors rush to traditional safe havens. Another area to pay attention to is international equities. These should move lower with a few exceptions. Global stocks sell off on contagion fear and risk aversion, but oil-exporting nations (Saudi Arabia, UAE) may outperform while oil-importing economies (Japan, India, Europe) get hit harder due to surging energy costs. In the real estate market, expect to see significant negative pressure. Rising oil prices fuel inflation expectations and push mortgage rates higher, while geopolitical uncertainty dampens consumer confidence and big-ticket purchase decisions. Lastly, industrial commodities will be the most confusing because there will likely be a mixed reaction to the current events. For example, energy-linked commodities (petrochemicals, fertilizers) spike on supply fears, while demand-sensitive metals (copper, steel) face downward pressure from expectations of slower global economic growth. This analysis of various asset classes is based on the idea that the US would be engaged in a prolonged conflict with Iran. I am hoping that is not the case. If the US can claim victory and disengage from the conflict relatively quickly, there would be a much more muted impact on various assets. As an investor, I am preparing myself for significant volatility and uncertainty in the coming weeks and months. It is obvious that the White House is executing a specific plan on the geopolitical stage. Regardless of whether you agree with them or not, you have to be aware of what is happening. It is easy to get caught up in the chaos, but my best advice is to stay focused on the long-term resiliency of your portfolio. You can look for short-term opportunities to exploit if mispricing present themselves, but very few people are well positioned to be a day trader. You are an investor, as am I. Stick with the long-term plan and you will likely do just fine. Before I let you go, I also want to issue a word of caution when it comes to each of you and your personal safety. Please be careful in the coming weeks. There are many threats, both foreign and domestic, that are worth paying attention to. It is unknown how many sleeper cells in the US could be activated because of these attacks in Iran. Let us all hope that the conflict is over sooner rather than later and as many innocent lives are preserved as possible. Have a great start to your week. I will talk to you next time. The Hidden Reason AI Needs Bitcoin Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. In this episode, we break down the viral Citrini paper and whether AI disruption is being overstated or simply repriced by markets. We also discuss compressed software valuations, NVIDIA, shifting credit conditions, and why crypto and bitcoin could benefit in a world that increasingly needs speed, verification, and secure financial rails. Podcast Sponsors Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure ! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. 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