Bitcoin's Worst-Case Bearish Scenario by Willy Woo: BTC Could Fall to $16,000

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available. Worst-case scenario for Bitcoin and theoretical drop to $16,000 High probability window for Bitcoin bottom named by CryptoQuant Advertisement Crypto trader and entrepreneur Willy Woo has published a tweet to comment on the current crypto market situation. He also shared his take on when the current bear market is likely to end, laying out a potential worst-case scenario and where it may push Bitcoin should it indeed happen. His forecast about the end of the bear market coincides with the analysis shared by CryptoQuant today. Worst-case scenario for Bitcoin and theoretical drop to $16,000 The good news is that Willy Woo believes that the selling streak by Bitcoin investors is fading out. This means, he explains, that from here on, Bitcoin is likely to trade sideways for approximately a month. A rebound to the mid-$70,000s may take place, but it would “likely be rejected,” he believes. HOT Stories XRP-Friendly SBI to Launch Japan Stablecoin in Q2, Ethereum May 'Flip' Bitcoin in Five Years Amid Quantum Threat, Cardano's USDC Eyes Two-Day Deadline: Morning Crypto Report Critical XRP Ledger Bug in Batch Amendment Could Have Drained User Wallets This bearish sell down by investors seems to have exhausted, which gives price a repreive to consolidate sideways for maybe a month, even a rebound to mid 70s, which would likely to be rejected. This is because the broader regime is heavily bearish with both spot and futures… pic.twitter.com/MAUlmBJtbE — Willy Woo (@willywoo) February 27, 2026 The key reason for this, per Woo, is that “the broader regime is heavily bearish,” meaning that liquidity is draining from both the spot and futures crypto markets. Bitcoin is unlikely to rally “when both sources of liquidity are bearish,” Woo stated. He attached a chart of the Bitcoin Flow Model to his tweet. Advertisement Woo offered the community “an educated guess,” saying that the fourth quarter of this year would be a perfect time for the bearish trend to end. As for the potential return of bullish momentum, that is likely in the first or the second quarter of 2027, according to him. But before it happens, Bitcoin could reach a “typical bear market bottom” of roughly $45,000 by Q4 this year. Woo also viewed a potential, but perhaps not too likely, worst-case scenario that could happen to the world’s flagship cryptocurrency. If the broader global macroeconomic environment undergoes any significant negative changes, Bitcoin might collapse as low as to find support at the $16,000 level per coin. Advertisement You Might Also Like Fri, 02/27/2026 - 10:42 Ripple CEO on Crypto: 'I Have So Much Optimism for 2026' By Yuri Molchan High probability window for Bitcoin bottom named by CryptoQuant On-chain analysis company CryptoQuant has used the historical data from the three previous Bitcoin halvings (in 2012, 2016 and 2020) in an attempt to figure out when the Bitcoin price may reverse after the 2024 April halving. There are three options, and they point at June, September and October 2026, respectively, as a period when BTC may reach a bottom and begin rising again. This is 777-925 days post-halving historically. Bottoms take time. If this cycle mirrors past structures from April 19, 2024: 2012 trace (777 days) → June 4, 2026 • 2016 trace (889 days) → September 24, 2026 • 2020 trace (925 days) → October 30, 2026. That puts the broader timing window in June–December 2026.… pic.twitter.com/8w5WzgGNXb — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 26, 2026 #Bitcoin #Bitcoin Price Prediction #Willy Woo #Bitcoin halving