One of longest mining capitulations nears end, signaling potential BTC price bottom

Markets Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email One of longest mining capitulations nears end, signaling potential BTC price bottom Hash Ribbon recovery and sub production pricing suggest the worst of the bitcoin drawdown may have passed. By James Van Straten | Edited by Oliver Knight Feb 25, 2026, 11:25 a.m. Make us preferred on Google Hash Ribbon (Glassnode) What to know : The Hash Ribbon is close to flashing a recovery signal after three months of miner stress, a pattern that has historically aligned with local or major bitcoin bottoms. BTC is currently trading below its average production cost for the first time since November 2022, a level often associated with deep value and late stage capitulation. The worst of bitcoin’s 50% drawdown may already be behind us. The Hash Ribbon indicator is close to signaling the end of a three month miner capitulation. One of the longest capitulations on record, according to Glassnode data. The metric compares the 30 day and 60 day moving averages of hash rate and is based on the observation that bitcoin often bottoms when miners are under maximum financial stress. Capitulation occurs when mining revenue drops below operating costs, forcing less efficient miners to shut down machines and sell BTC reserves to fund electricity, debt, and overhead. That combination reduces hash rate and adds sustained sell pressure to the market. STORY CONTINUES BELOW Don't miss another story. Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today . See all newsletters Sign me up By signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to our terms & conditions and privacy policy . A recovery signal is triggered when the 30 day hash rate moving average crosses back above the 60 day, indicating miners are returning online and network stress is easing and that moment is approaching. Historically, when this crossover aligns with improving price momentum, it has marked strong accumulation zones. Since late November, when the metric first inverted, bitcoin has fallen from around $90,000 to a low near $60,000 in early February, before rebounding to roughly $65,000 as of press time. Such major corrections are typical during miner stress events. Since 2011, there have been about 20 mining capitulations, most coinciding with local or major bottoms, including January 2015, December 2018 and December 2022. Hash rate which is the total computational power securing the network is now rebounding, signaling renewed confidence among miners. At the same time, bitcoin is now trading below its estimated average production cost of $66,000, a level often associated with deep value, according to checkonchain data . The last time this occurred was November 2022, when BTC bottomed near $15,500. Glassnode Bitcoin News Bitcoin Miners Больше для вас Strategy becomes most heavily shorted U.S. stock – but don't assume pure bearishness Автор James Van Straten | Редактор Omkar Godbole 1 час назад Short interest in MSTR equals 14% of market cap, yet much of the positioning may reflect basis trades rather than outright bets on a continued decline. Что нужно знать : Short bets on Strategy amount to 14% of its market cap, the highest among stocks tracked by FactSet and Goldman Sachs. Market participants say the elevated short interest likely reflects MSTR, BTC basis or carry trades, with firms such as Jane Street building large positions in both MSTR and BlackRock’s IBIT, suggesting paired long and short strategies instead of outright bearish conviction. Прочитать полную историю Latest Crypto News Strategy becomes most heavily shorted U.S. stock – but don't assume pure bearishness 1 hour ago Leading stablecoin Tether shrinks again as market cap looks set for second straight monthly drop 3 hours ago Vitalik Buterin sold 17,000 ETH this month as ether fell 37% 4 hours ago Crypto firm with U.S. bank charter holds bitcoin holder Strategy's preferred stock 4 hours ago Dogecoin jumps 5% as breakout flips resistance into support 5 hours ago Bitcoin bounces above $65,000 as dollar weakens and bullish hopes build 6 hours ago Top Stories Mark Zuckerberg's Meta is planning stablecoin comeback in the second half of this year 20 hours ago Crypto’s biggest exchange fights back against allegations of moving billions of Iran-linked money 14 hours ago Crypto isn't losing to AI, its just 'capitalism doing its job,' says Dragonfly 14 hours ago 'If you’re not accumulating bitcoin at this stage, then when,' asks prominent analyst 21 hours ago