Capitulation among short-term holders, indicating significant selling pressure and realization of losses, often precedes a market bottom. the large daily losses suggest that new market entrants are under pressure and may be forced sellers.
The article cites glassnode, a reputable on-chain analytics firm, and provides specific data points (net realized profit/loss, $0.48b daily losses). the information is presented with charts and cross-referenced with other market indicators like the coinbase premium gap.
While the immediate effect is selling pressure, prolonged capitulation by short-term holders can signal the end of a correction phase. historically, when new investors capitulate, it often marks a bottoming out of the price, setting the stage for a potential recovery and upward movement.
Capitulation phases, especially when involving significant realized losses, typically take time to play out. the recovery or bottoming process following such an event usually extends over weeks or months, not days.
Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing How Our News is Made Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Ad discliamer Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio. On-chain data shows the Bitcoin short-term holders continue to capitulate as they are realizing net losses of $0.48 billion every day. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Net Realized Profit/Loss Is Notably Red According to data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode , the Net Realized Profit/Loss has been negative for the Bitcoin short-term holders recently. This indicator measures, as its name suggests, the net amount of profit or loss that BTC investors are harvesting through their selling. Related Reading Another $438M In Crypto Longs Gone As Bitcoin, Altcoins Pull Back 6 hours ago The version of the metric that’s of relevance here specifically tracks this for the short-term holders (STHs) , a BTC investor cohort that includes only buyers from the last 155 days. Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell them in the future. Since the STHs represent the new entrants into the market, their resilience tends to be low, and they may take part in panic selling during market volatility. Recently, Bitcoin has faced a major drawdown and the STHs have naturally reacted to it. Below is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows how the 7-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the Net Realized Profit/Loss has fluctuated for this group during the recent volatility. The value of the metric seems to have plunged in recent months | Source: Glassnode on X As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin STH Net Realized Profit/Loss saw a deep plunge into the negative territory during the price downturn that followed the October high, implying realized losses notably outweighed the profits. In January, the metric recovered toward the neutral mark as the market saw an uplift, but the price drawdown since the end of the month has again taken the indicator to a highly red level. On February 6th, the STH Net Realized Profit/Loss fell to a value of -$1.24 billion per day, notably lower than the red peak observed last year. Since this low, the metric has risen a bit and today, it’s sitting at -$0.48 billion per day. “While the intensity has cooled, the broader regime still signals a market under pressure, with participants in the base formation phase continuing to capitulate,” explained the analytics firm. In some other news, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has been negative recently, as highlighted by CryptoQuant author IT Tech in an X post . Looks like the value of the metric has remained negative since a while now | Source: @IT_Tech_PL on X The Coinbase Premium Gap tracks the difference between the Bitcoin spot price listed on Coinbase (USD pair) and that on Binance (USDT pair). From the chart, it’s apparent that the metric has maintained at red values since mid-December, indicating that Coinbase users have been applying a higher amount of selling pressure than Binance traders. Related Reading Bitcoin Extreme Fear Streak Extends To 22 Days As Price Struggles 3 days ago Coinbase is mainly used by US-based investors, especially the large institutional entities, so this trend can be a sign that there isn’t much demand for BTC among them right now. BTC Price Bitcoin has been slipping deeper as its price is now trading around $64,000. The trend in the price of the coin over the last five days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com