Investors Are Confused Because We Have Positive And Negative Data

Investors Are Confused Because We Have Positive And Negative Data

Source: Pomp Letter

Published:18:01 UTC

BTC Price:$64739

#BTC #Macro #Economy

Analysis

Price Impact

Med

The article discusses conflicting economic data, suggesting potential confusion for investors. while some indicators point to economic weakness (credit card delinquencies, ai impacting jobs), others show strength (labor participation, broad market rallies). the mention of bitcoin potentially absorbing a 'historic rotation' and being beneficial in both inflationary and deflationary environments, alongside sponsorship from companies like bitlayer and simple mining focusing on bitcoin, suggests a positive long-term outlook for btc, but the immediate price impact is tempered by overall economic uncertainty.

Trustworthiness

Med

The article presents a balanced view by acknowledging both positive and negative economic data. the author's personal stance ('i would never, ever bet against the united states of america or our assets') adds a layer of conviction but is subjective. the sponsorship by various crypto-related entities, including those focused on bitcoin infrastructure, indicates a vested interest in the crypto market's success, which should be considered.

Price Direction

Bullish

Despite economic uncertainties, the article highlights several positive aspects: high labor participation, a broad market rally beyond just the 'mag 7' stocks, and the specific mention of bitcoin's potential to benefit from market rotations and various economic conditions. the overall sentiment, while cautious, leans towards an optimistic outlook on us assets, with bitcoin being a key asset discussed.

Time Effect

Long

The discussion on economic trends, ai's impact on jobs, and broad market rallies suggests a longer-term perspective rather than immediate trading implications. the potential for bitcoin to absorb 'historic rotations' also points to a more significant, ongoing market shift rather than a short-term event.

Original Article:

Article Content:

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Check Out MoonPay + Wallet in Telegram! To investors, The world is rapidly changing and it is becoming more difficult to navigate financial markets. Many of my smartest friends are scratching their heads as they try to figure out what is happening, how the changes will impact asset prices, and where they should allocate their capital. During these times, the only thing I know is to look at the data. There are plenty of data points you could use to spin a negative outlook on the US economy right now. For example, Barchart explains “12.7% of credit card loans are now in serious delinquency (90+ days), the 2nd highest in history. The only other time the percentage was higher was the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis.” That is not good. A deteriorating labor market could accelerate the problem too. 3Fourteen’s Warren Pies writes “AI’s impact on the labor market is no longer theoretical. In the most AI-exposed industries, job losses are accelerating (especially compared to their pre-AI trend growth). AI resistant industries continue to add jobs. As the year progresses, expect this wedge to grow.” This weakness in the job market could spell further pain financially for Americans. We know that the wealth inequality gap is widening at an alarming pace. As we can see, the wealth of the top 1% is now more than $42 trillion, while the wealth of the middle class is only $20 trillion. This means the top 1% has more than twice the wealth of the entire middle class . This wealth inequality is most likely only going to get worse over time if we continue on the path we are currently going down. The wealthy will own financial assets, AI agents, and robots, while the bottom half of the K-shaped economy will be holding cash and struggling to get a job. You can see this future divide clearly in the difference between data center construction versus general office construction. As Campbell put it , we are building “more space for machines to work than space for humans.” Whoever controls those machines will benefit greatly. Thankfully, all the data and news is not negative though. Eddy Elfenbein writes “the labor force participation rate for prime-working age people is at a 25-year high, and it’s close to an 80-year high (as far back as the data goes).” Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick also dispels the myth that only the Mag 7 drives returns. He says “For years they said only seven stocks were outperforming. It wasn’t true, but it is what we were told. Today? We are seeing the broadest rally in history.” So my conclusion is that both things are going to be true: you will continue to see lots of fear porn dominating the media, but there is an incredible amount of opportunity that is driven by positive developments across the economy. Glass half full or glass half empty? That will be for each of you to decide. 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