A significant spike in realized losses, the largest since 2022, indicates panic selling. historically, such events can precede sharp recoveries, suggesting a potential bottoming out, but current technical resistance and broader market uncertainties temper immediate bullishness.
The data on realized losses is derived from on-chain metrics, which are generally reliable for understanding actual capitulation events. the comparison to historical patterns adds further weight to the analysis.
While the capitulation event historically suggests a potential recovery, xrp is still facing technical resistance. the ongoing macro and regulatory uncertainty also creates a mixed outlook, making a neutral stance appropriate until clearer demand signals emerge.
Capitulation events often mark the beginning of a recovery phase that can take several months to fully play out, as seen in the 114% rally following the 2022 spike, which took eight months.
Markets Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email XRP falls 4% as network sees biggest realized loss spike since 2022 Past capitulation waves have preceded sharp recoveries, but this time price is still fighting technical resistance even as ledger activity surges. By Shaurya Malwa Feb 22, 2026, 3:21 p.m. Make us preferred on Google What to know : XRP has recorded about $1.93 billion in weekly realized losses, its largest spike since 2022, signaling intense panic selling. Historically, similar capitulation events have marked market bottoms, as coins move from short-term traders to longer-term holders and create a more stable price base. While this loss spike raises the odds that sellers are exhausted, any durable rebound will depend on improving demand and easing sell pressure amid ongoing macro and regulatory uncertainty. XRP has just logged its largest weekly realized loss spike since 2022, a sign that panic selling may have reached an extreme. On-chain data shows roughly $1.93 billion in realized losses in a single week, meaning coins moved at prices below their original purchase levels. The last time losses of that magnitude were recorded, about 39 months ago, XRP went on to rally 114% over the following eight months. STORY CONTINUES BELOW Don't miss another story. Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today . See all newsletters Sign me up By signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to our terms & conditions and privacy policy . Realized losses measure actual losses, not paper drawdowns. They spike when holders capitulate, choosing to lock in losses rather than wait for a rebound. Unlike unrealized losses, which can vanish if price recovers, realized losses represent final decisions. That absorption piece matters. For realized losses to surge into the billions, there must be aggressive selling pressure, but there must also be buyers willing to take the other side. Large capitulation events often coincide with liquidity stepping in at lower levels. Historically, these moments tend to cluster near market bottoms because much of the weaker positioning gets cleared out in one move. When weak hands are flushed, the composition of holders shifts. The coins that change hands during capitulation typically move from short-term, emotionally driven traders to longer-term buyers with stronger conviction or better cost bases. That redistribution can create a more stable foundation for price. However, context is key. The 2022 spike came after a prolonged drawdown and broader crypto deleveraging. Today’s environment includes macro uncertainty, shifting regulatory narratives and still-elevated volatility across majors. A realized loss spike increases the probability that sellers are exhausted, but it does not eliminate macro headwinds. Another variable to watch is follow-through. In prior cycles, sustained recoveries required not just a single capitulation print but stabilization in spot demand and declining sell pressure in the weeks that followed. If realized losses remain elevated or quickly re-accelerate, that would suggest distribution is not finished. For now, the data points to emotional extremes. Historically, that has been fertile ground for rebounds. Whether it becomes a durable trend shift depends on what happens after the panic subsides. XRP II More For You ProShares' stablecoin-ready ETF sees $17 billion debut, sparking speculation about Circle By Krisztian Sandor | Edited by Aoyon Ashraf 22 minutes ago Analysts speculated that a large issuer like Circle might be moving reserve assets en masse into the ETF, but data show otherwise. What to know : ProShares launched IQMM, a money market ETF designed to comply with U.S. stablecoin reserve requirements under the GENIUS Act. The fund saw over $17 billion in first-day trading, sparking speculation about a large stablecoin issuer like Circle moving funds. Data suggests that internal fund movements, not Circle, are likely behind the volume. Still, the IQMM could see demand from the $300 billion stablecoin industry as the sector gets increasingly regulated, 10x Research's Markus Thielen said. 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