A large spike in realized losses often signals a market bottom and a potential reversal, historically leading to significant price increases.
Santiment is a reputable on-chain analytics firm, and historical data from november 2022 supports this pattern.
The data suggests that 'weak hands' have sold, reducing selling pressure and increasing the probability of a price bounce, similar to the 114% increase observed after a similar event in 2022.
The historical precedent suggests a potential price increase over the next several months, rather than an immediate short-term rally.
Cover image via U.Today Read U.TODAY on Google News Complete capitulation Not a guarantee Advertisement XRP holders have endured a brutal wave of capitulation, but new on-chain data shows that the worst of the sell-off may finally be in the rearview mirror. According to the crypto analytics firm Santiment, XRP has just recorded its largest spike in on-chain realized losses since late 2022. Historical patterns indicate that this level of extreme fear often has a tendency to coincide with a structural market bottom. HOT Stories XRP Records Largest On-Chain Realized Loss Spike Since 2022 Ripple Partners With Deutsche Bank, $2 Billion in Bitcoin Scooped by Whales, Schwartz Criticizes Logan Paul, Shiba Inu Price Enters Consolidation — Top Weekly Crypto News Complete capitulation A "realized loss" occurs when an investor sells their coins at a price lower than their original purchase price. It indicates that a large number of traders are panicking and locking in their losses. Advertisement According to Santiment, this behavior is a hallmark of "fear taking over" the market. However, it serves as a critical contrarian price signal. 📉 BREAKING: XRP has seen its largest on-chain realized loss spike since 2022. When the previous weekly milestone of -1.93B in realized losses occurred 39 months ago, $XRP proceeded to jump +114% over the next 8 months. 💸 Significant realized losses happen when a large number… pic.twitter.com/gPUU8fYfiY — Santiment (@santimentfeed) February 21, 2026 When a wave of heavy realized losses washes over the market, it usually means the "weak hands" have already sold their positions. Advertisement You Might Also Like Sat, 02/21/2026 - 17:12 Ripple Partners With Deutsche Bank, $2 Billion in Bitcoin Scooped by Whales, Schwartz Criticizes Logan Paul, Shiba Inu Price Enters Consolidation — Top Weekly Crypto News By Dan Burgin With the panic sellers flushed out, there is a significantly reduced overhang of potential sellers left to drive the price lower. In simple terms, the heavy damage has already been done, and the market has reached an emotional tipping point. The chart features a massive, sudden downward spike in the purple line. Over the course of the week, those total realized losses ballooned to a staggering $1.93 billion. The last time the XRP network witnessed a weekly realized loss milestone of this exact magnitude was roughly 39 months ago, in November 2022. Following that identical capitulation event in 2022, the price of XRP proceeded to jump 114% over the subsequent eight months. Not a guarantee Santiment is quick to point out that extreme fear tends to peak before the price actually bottoms. This massive realized loss spike does not guarantee an immediate, overnight rally, but it drastically increases the probability of a bounce. Once the sellers are fully exhausted, even a small influx of new buying pressure can push prices significantly higher. Morgan’s assessment aligns directly with the psychological lifecycle of a market correction. When traders panic and lock in nearly $2 billion in losses over a single week, it traditionally marks the final, most painful phase of a market flush. #XRP Price Prediction