Bitcoin's plunge signals coming AI crisis, but massive Fed response will drive new record high: Arthur Hayes

Markets Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Bitcoin's plunge signals coming AI crisis, but massive Fed response will drive new record high: Arthur Hayes The rise of artificial intelligence is likely to displace millions of workers in quick order, triggering sizable credit defaults, said Hayes. By Stephen Alpher , AI Boost Feb 18, 2026, 3:15 p.m. Make us preferred on Google Fed's money printer will soon go 'brrr', says Arthur Hayes (Shutterstock) What to know : Bitcoin's recent crash is signaling a coming massive AI-related credit event, wrote Arthur Hayes. The Fed's response to the coming financial crisis is likely to restart the crypto bull market. That doesn't mean there won't be more pain ahead for bitcoin bulls, as political division could delay central bank action. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says bitcoin's BTC $ 67,355.93 recent 52% crash from its October all-time high is flashing a critical warning signal — but the crypto could ultimately soar to new records once the Federal Reserve responds to an AI-driven banking crisis he believes is imminent. In his latest essay , "This Is Fine," Hayes argued that bitcoin's divergence from traditional tech stocks reveals its role as the "global fiat liquidity fire alarm." While the Nasdaq has remained relatively flat, bitcoin has plunged from $126,000 to its current $67,000, pricing in what Hayes describes as a massive credit destruction event that equity markets have yet to acknowledge. STORY CONTINUES BELOW Don't miss another story. Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today . See all newsletters Sign me up By signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to our terms & conditions and privacy policy . "Bitcoin is the most responsive freely traded asset to the fiat credit supply," Hayes wrote. "The divergence recently between bitcoin and the Nasdaq sounds the alarm that a massive credit destruction event is nigh." Hayes models a scenario where artificial intelligence displaces just 20% of America's 72.1 million knowledge workers, triggering approximately $557 billion in consumer credit and mortgage defaults — about half the severity of the 2008 financial crisis. This AI-driven shock would devastate regional banks and force the Federal Reserve into "the biggest money printing in history," he predicts. "Deflation is bad, but ultimately good for fiat credit-sensitive assets like Bitcoin," said Hayes. "First, the market prices the impact ... Then ... the monetary mandarins panic and press that Brrrr button harder than I shred pow the morning after a one-meter dump." Hayes noted gold's recent gains, particularly against bitcoin, as another red flag, stating that "a surging gold versus a slumping Bitcoin clearly tells us that a deflationary risk-off credit event within Pax Americana is brewing." Hayes said that once the Fed intervenes with emergency liquidity measures — similar to the March 2023 response to regional bank failures — bitcoin will "pump decisively off its lows" and the expectation of sustained money printing will drive it to new all-time highs. That doesn't mean there won't be more pain ahead for the foreseeable future, said Hayes. He warned bitcoin could fall further before the Fed acts, potentially breaking below $60,000 as political dysfunction delays the central bank's response. Crypto investors, he advised, should stay liquid, avoid leverage, and "wait for the all-clear from the Fed that it's time to dump filthy fiat and ape into risky assets with wanton abandon." Bitcoin News Arthur Hayes AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards . For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy . More For You Zoomex: Precise Systems of Fairness and Transparency by Design By CoinDesk Jan 31, 2026 Commissioned by Zoomex Read full story More For You Canary lists spot SUI ETF with staking rewards By Jamie Crawley , AI Boost | Edited by Sheldon Reback 19 minutes ago The Nasdaq-listed SUIS fund offers direct exposure to Sui’s native token while passing through proof-of-stake rewards in a regulated ETF wrapper. What to know : Canary Capital debuted SUIS, the first spot sui ETF that includes staking rewards. The fund provides direct exposure to sui’s price while reflecting net staking income in its NAV. The move expands the roster of proof-of-stake tokens entering regulated ETF structures. Read full story Latest Crypto News Hyperliquid starts DeFi lobbying group with $29 million token backing 9 minutes ago Tokenized pre-IPO shares topic ignites legal debate at Consensus Hong Kong 2026 9 minutes ago Canary lists spot SUI ETF with staking rewards 19 minutes ago CoinDesk 20 performance update: Aptos (APT) declines 3%, leading index lower 54 minutes ago American crypto holders are scared and confused about this year’s new IRS tax rules 2 hours ago From 2016 hack to $150M Endowment: the DAO’s second act focuses on Ethereum security 2 hours ago Top Stories Bitcoin holds near $68,000 as volatility cools, WLFI jumps ahead of Mar-a-Lago forum 3 hours ago Peter Thiel's Founders Fund dumps every ETHZilla share 8 hours ago Bitcoin ETFs hold billions despite price crash, but resilience masks harsh reality 9 hours ago Bitcoin losing $70,000 is a warning sign for further downside 8 hours ago Moonwell's $1.12 nightmare: A pricing glitch just let bots seize millions in ETH collateral 4 hours ago Brevan Howard's crypto fund said to lose 30% in worst year since inception: FT 4 hours ago In this article BTC BTC $ 67,355.93 ◢ 0.05 %