The article suggests that the resilience of bitcoin etf holdings, despite price crashes, is not solely due to long-term 'hodlers' but significantly influenced by market makers and arbitrageurs holding hedged, non-directional positions. this challenges the common bullish narrative derived from high aum, potentially leading to a re-evaluation of market sentiment.
The analysis is provided by omkar godbole of coindesk, a reputable crypto news source, and cites markus thielen, founder of 10x research, known for detailed market analysis. the reasoning is well-articulated and supported by 13f filings data.
While not directly bearish, the analysis neutralizes an overly bullish interpretation of etf aum. it indicates that a large portion of these holdings does not exert direct directional pressure, as they are part of hedged strategies. this implies less inherent buying pressure from these specific holders than widely assumed, potentially cooling overly optimistic price expectations based solely on etf inflows/aum.
This insight affects the fundamental understanding of bitcoin etf market dynamics and investor positioning, which will have a longer-term influence on how market participants interpret etf data and overall market sentiment, rather than just a short-term reaction to a specific event.
Markets Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Bitcoin ETFs hold billions despite price crash, but resilience masks harsh reality Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States still hold about $85 billion in assets, despite the BTC price crash. By Omkar Godbole Feb 18, 2026, 6:08 a.m. Make us preferred on Google Bitcoin ETF resilience masks harsh truth of positioning. (geralt/Pixabay) What to know : Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States still hold about $85 billion in assets, despite the BTC price crash. Analyst Markus Thielen argues that this resilience reflects structural ETF ownership dominated by market makers, arbitrage-focused hedge funds and not just long-term holders. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to hold billions in assets despite bitcoin's brutal price crash, but that staying power isn't necessarily the bullish signal that many have come to believe. According to one analyst, the resilience stems from market makers and arbitrageurs who trade in and out rather than die-hard long-term holders betting on price appreciation. STORY CONTINUES BELOW Don't miss another story. Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today . See all newsletters Sign me up By signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to our terms & conditions and privacy policy . Bitcoin's BTC $ 67,683.06 price peaked above $126,000 in early October and recently crashed to nearly $60,000. Despite the price halving, the 11 spot bitcoin ETFs listed in the U.S. have cumulatively registered just $8.5 billion in net outflows. These funds still hold $85 billion in assets under management, which equates to over 6% of bitcoin's supply. Several analysts, including those CoinDesk spoke with at Consensus Hong Kong last week, cited the same data as evidence of bullish positioning. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research , says the resilience comes not just from long-term hodlers, but from market makers and arbitrageurs with hedged, non-directional positions. "This reflects the structural nature of ETF ownership, which is dominated by market makers and arbitrage-focused hedge funds holding largely hedged positions, as well as long-term institutional investors with low turnover and longer investment horizons," Thielen said in a note to clients on Wednesday. Thielen pointed to reports from institutions (called 13F filings) for late 2025. They show that 55% to 75% of BlackRock's IBIT ETF, which holds $61 billion, is owned by market makers and arbitrage-focused hedge funds who keep their bets hedged or neutral, not truly bullish on bitcoin. Market makers are entities that create liquidity in an exchange's order book, facilitating the seamless execution of large buy and sell orders at stable prices. They profit from the bid-ask spread and therefore strive to maintain market-neutral exposure to bypass price volatility risks. Similarly, arbitrage hedge funds take opposing positions in two markets, such as spot ETFs and futures, to profit from the price differential between the two. Both entities, therefore, do not inject directional pressures (bullish/bearish) into the market. Thielen added that market makers trimmed exposure by around $1.6 billion to $2.4 billion during the fourth quarter, as bitcoin traded near $88,000, reflecting "declining speculative demand and reduced arbitrage inventory requirements." Bitcoin News bitcoin spot ETF More For You Zoomex: Precise Systems of Fairness and Transparency by Design By CoinDesk Jan 31, 2026 Commissioned by Zoomex Read full story More For You Abu Dhabi wealth funds bitcoin ETF holdings topped $1 billion at end of 2025 By Helene Braun | Edited by Stephen Alpher 8 hours ago Both Mubadala Investment Company and Al Warda Investments lifted investments in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) in the fourth quarter. What to know : Two major Abu Dhabi investment firms, Mubadala Investment Company and Al Warda Investments, increased their holdings of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) in the fourth quarter of 2025 as bitcoin’s price fell. Mubadala lifted its IBIT stake to 12.7 million shares and Al Warda to 8.2 million shares. Together, they held a combined position that exceeded $1 billion at the end of 2025 but has since declined to just over $800 million amid further bitcoin losses in 2026. 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Here's what it means for bitcoin Feb 17, 2026 In this article BTC BTC $ 67,683.06 ◢ 1.09 %