BofA survey flags dollar bearish bets at over a decade high. Here's what it means for bitcoin

Markets Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email BofA survey flags dollar bearish bets at over a decade high. Here's what it means for bitcoin BofA's February survey shows investor positioning in the U.S. dollar has fallen to its most negative level since at least early 2012. By Omkar Godbole Feb 17, 2026, 5:43 a.m. Make us preferred on Google Record dollar shorts could breed BTC volatility. (TheDigitalArtist/Pixabay) What to know : Investors are more bearish on the U.S. dollar than ever, a positioning that has historically been a bullish tailwind for bitcoin because a weaker dollar tends to support risk assets. Since early 2025, bitcoin has developed an unusually positive correlation with the dollar, with their 90-day correlation reaching 0.60 even as both the dollar index and BTC have fallen. If this new link holds, a further dollar slide could hurt bitcoin, while a sharp dollar short squeeze and rebound could instead lift BTC. Investors are most bearish on the dollar in over a decade, per Bank of America's (BofA) latest survey and that extreme bet could breed bitcoin BTC $ 68,079.67 volatility, just not the way crypto bulls have become used to. BofA's February survey shows investor positioning in the U.S. dollar has fallen to its most negative (bearish) level since at least early 2012, with net exposure at a record underweight. This is driven by concerns over further deterioration in the U.S. labor market, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. STORY CONTINUES BELOW Don't miss another story. Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today . See all newsletters Sign me up By signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to our terms & conditions and privacy policy . Since its inception, bitcoin has mostly moved in the opposite direction of the U.S. Dollar Index, rising when the greenback slides and falling when it strengthens. That tracks for two big reasons: As a dollar-denominated asset, a softer buck makes BTC cheaper to buy and vice versa. Plus, a strong dollar tightens financial conditions globally, hammering risk assets like bitcoin and the reverse holds when it weakens. So, if history is a guide, the record bearish dollar positioning, a sign of investors aligned for a weaker dollar, could be termed a classic bullish tailwind for bitcoin. But wait, there's a twist. Since early 2025, and especially lately, bitcoin has developed a weird positive link to the dollar. DXY plunged over 9% last year and another 1% this year. Yet BTC dropped 6% in 2025 and is down 21% year-to-date. Their 90-day correlation hit 0.60 on Monday, the highest since April 2025, according to data source TradingView. If that link sticks, a deeper slide in the dollar index may not bode well for bitcoin. But the flip side is a dollar bounce, fueled by a short squeeze, could drag BTC higher with it. When investors pile into extreme bearish positions, any unexpected price bounce forces them to buy back en masse to limit losses, creating a short squeeze. This frantic covering propels the asset price higher, amplifying volatility skyward. "Record short positioning raises the risk of volatility in major USD pairs; downside may extend on weak US data, but crowded trade dynamics increase potential for sharp short-covering rallies," InvestingLive's Chief Asia-Pacific Currency Analyst Eamonn Sheridan said in a market update. At press time, the dollar index was up 0.25% on the day at 97.13 and bitcoin changed hands at $68,150, down 1%, according to CoinDesk data. Bitcoin News Dollar index Bank of America More For You 'We do not do illegal things': Inside a U.S.-sanctioned stablecoin issuer's race to build a crypto giant By Sam Reynolds | Edited by Aoyon Ashraf , Nikhilesh De 11 hours ago Oleg Ogienko, the public face of A7A5, pitched the ruble-pegged stablecoin as a fast-growing trade rail built to move money across borders despite sanctions pressure. What to know : Oleg Ogienko, the public face of ruble-denominated stablecoin issuer A7A5, insists the firm complies fully with Kyrgyz regulations and international anti-money-laundering standards despite extensive U.S. sanctions on its affiliates. A7A5, whose issuing entities and reserve bank are sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury, has grown faster than USDT and USDC and aims to handle more than 20 percent of Russia’s trade settlements, primarily serving businesses in Asia, Africa and South America trading with Russian partners. Ogienko said that he and his team were developing partnerships with blockchain platforms and exchanges during Consensus in Hong Kong, though declined to name specifics. 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