Bitcoin could fall to $10,000 as U.S. recession risk builds, Mike McGlone Says

Markets Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Bitcoin could fall to $10,000 as U.S. recession risk builds, Mike McGlone Says McGlone links bitcoin’s downturn to record U.S. market cap-to-GDP levels, low equity volatility and rising gold prices, warning of potential contagion into stocks. By Olivier Acuna | Edited by Oliver Knight Feb 16, 2026, 2:06 p.m. Make us preferred on Google Mike McGlone said bitcoin might plunge to $10,000, but market analyst Jason Fernandes said his framing is all wrong. (Photo: Olivier Acuna/Modified by CoinDesk) What to know : Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone warns that collapsing crypto prices and a potential bitcoin slide toward $10,000 could signal mounting financial stress and foreshadow a U.S. recession. McGlone argues the post-2008 "buy the dip" era may be ending as crypto weakens, stock market valuations sit near century highs relative to GDP, and equity volatility remains unusually low. Market analyst Jason Fernandes counters that a drop to $10,000 bitcoin would likely require a severe systemic shock and recession, calling such an outcome a low-probability tail risk compared with a milder reset or consolidation. Bloomberg Intelligence macro strategist Mike McGlone said Monday that collapsing crypto prices may signal broader financial stress, warning bitcoin could revert toward $10,000 and potentially foreshadow the next U.S. recession. In a post on X , McGlone also said the long-standing “buy the dip” mentality that has supported risk assets since 2008 could be breaking down as digital assets weaken and volatility dynamics shift. STORY CONTINUES BELOW Don't miss another story. Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today . See all newsletters Sign me up By signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to our terms & conditions and privacy policy . After climbing back to $70,841 by 07:00 UTC on Feb. 15 from $65,395 late on Feb. 12, bitcoin was hovering around $68,800 by mid-morning. The broader crypto market was also in the red Monday, with 85 of the top 100 tokens posting losses. Privacy-focused coins monero and zcash were down 10% and 8%, respectively over the past 24 hours. “Healthy Correction is what we should hear soon from stock market analysts (who risk unemployment if not onboard), following collapsing cryptos,” McGlone wrote. “The buy the dips mantra since 2008 may be over.” McGlone pointed to several macro indicators that reflect elevated risk conditions. U.S. stock market capitalization relative to gross domestic product (GDP) has reached its highest level in roughly a century, he noted. At the same time, 180-day volatility in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 is at its lowest level in about eight years, McGlone added. He also described the “crypto bubble” as “imploding,” adding that “Trump euphoria” has peaked and is contributing to contagion across markets. Meanwhile, gold and silver are “grabbing alpha” at a pace last seen about half a century ago, with rising volatility that he said could “trickle up” into equities. McGlone shared a chart comparing bitcoin divided by 10 for scaling, with the S&P 500. As of Feb. 13, both were hovering below 7,000 on his graphic. He said that “volatile and beta-dependent” bitcoin is unlikely to stay above that level if broader equity beta weakens. The Bloomberg analyst identified 5,600 on the S&P 500, equivalent to roughly $56,000 for bitcoin under his scaling, as an initial “normal reversion” level. Beyond that, part of his base case calls for bitcoin to revert toward $10,000, contingent on a peak in the U.S. stock market. McGlone’s outlook splits opinion Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam and a market analyst, told CoinDesk that McGlone’s thesis assumes market extremes must resolve through collapse and that bitcoin’s equity beta guarantees a proportional crash. “That’s false equivalence and single-path bias,” Fernandes said. “Markets can also resolve excess through time, rotation, or inflation erosion. A macro slowdown could mean consolidation or a $40,000 to $50,000 reset, not a systemic unwind to $10,000.” Fernandes added that a move toward $10,000 would likely require a true systemic event, including sharp liquidity contraction, widening credit spreads, forced deleveraging across funds and a disorderly equity drawdown. “That implies recession plus financial stress, not just slower growth,” he said. “Absent a credit shock or policy mistake that drains global liquidity, that kind of collapse remains a low-probability tail risk.” Bitcoin News crypto market Mike McGlone More For You Hive, Riot earnings reports, Fed rate-decision minutes: Crypto Week Ahead By Francisco Rodrigues | Edited by Sheldon Reback 1 hour ago Your look at what's coming in the week starting Feb. 16. 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