Bitcoin's 'Quantum Discount': Why Willy Woo Says BTC Is Breaking 12-Year Trend Against Gold

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available. Read U.TODAY on Google News The decade-long narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" is facing its most significant structural challenge yet. Renowned on-chain analyst Willy Woo, in a recent X post , warned that Bitcoin has broken a 12-year valuation trend relative to gold, citing a looming "Quantum Discount" that could suppress prices for years. Advertisement Four million BTC supply shock Historically, Bitcoin has aggressively outpaced gold in value — by 76,231,860% according to ICE chart on TradingView . However, Woo observes that this relationship has decoupled just as the global "long-term debt cycle" reaches its peak. While macro investors typically flee to hard assets during debt deleveraging, gold is "mooning" while Bitcoin remains tethered. The culprit? "Q-Day" — the point at which quantum computers become powerful enough to crack the cryptographic signatures protecting the network. HOT Stories 50 Million XRPs Sold in Less Than 24 Hours Crypto Market Review: XRP Breaks 26 EMA, Ethereum (ETH) Forms Micro-Double Top, Shiba Inu (SHIB) Extends Gains to 25% 12 YR TREND BROKEN. BTC should be a valued a LOT HIGHER relative to gold. Should be. IT'S NOT. The valuation trend broke down once QUANTUM came into awareness. Don't read this post if you want to stay high on hopium instead of seeing things as they are. pic.twitter.com/Qa2YKDlRMp — Willy Woo (@willywoo) February 16, 2026 The primary fear is not just Bitcoin network security but a massive liquidity event, as Woo points out that roughly four million "lost" Bitcoins — untouched for years and often belonging to early adopters and even the creator of the cryptocurrency, Satoshi Nakamoto — could become vulnerable. If quantum technology can unlock these wallets, those coins would effectively return to circulation. Advertisement To put the scale in perspective: Total enterprise/ETF accumulation since 2020: 2.8 million BTC. Total "lost" coins at risk: 4 million BTC. Woo estimates that this potential supply represents eight years of enterprise accumulation hitting the market at once. Advertisement You Might Also Like Mon, 02/16/2026 - 07:47 Strategy Says It Will Be Fine If BTC Hits $8K By Alex Dovbnya While Bitcoin can be patched with quantum-resistant signatures, Woo argues this does not solve the "lost coin" dilemma. He places a 75% probability that the network will fail to freeze these legacy coins via a hard fork, meaning the market must now price in this risk. With Q-Day estimated to be 5 to 15 years away, BTC may trade with a cloud over its head during the very decade it is most needed as a sovereign hedge. For investors, this "Quantum Discount" suggests that while gold rallies on macro fears, Bitcoin's path to new heights remains complicated by its own technological evolution. #Bitcoin #Gold #Quantum Computing #Willy Woo