Bitcoin Is Down Bad, But Hasn't Yet Hit Its 'Ultimate Bear Market Bottom': Analysts
Analysis
Price Impact
HighAnalysts from cryptoquant, galaxy, and standard chartered forecast a further significant drop for bitcoin, potentially reaching $55,000 to $50,000, representing a 21%+ decline from current levels. this is based on the 'realized price' metric and market cycle indicators.
Trustworthiness
HighThe analysis comes from reputable firms like cryptoquant, galaxy, and standard chartered, utilizing established metrics like 'realized price' and historical market cycle data. their findings are also corroborated by prediction markets.
Price Direction
BearishThe prevailing sentiment is that bitcoin has not yet hit its ultimate bear market bottom, with targets ranging from $55,000 (cryptoquant's 'realized price') to $50,000 (standard chartered). the market indicator has not yet entered the 'extreme bear' phase, which typically precedes a bottom.
Time Effect
ShortThe forecasted drop to the bear market bottom is expected in the short term. however, once that bottom is reached, the price is predicted to 'gravitate around it for 4-6 months' before any significant rebound, implying a longer consolidation phase.
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In brief Bitcoin's "ultimate bear market bottom" is $55,000, according to a new report from CryptoQuant. The firm's market indicator also sits above its "extreme bear" phase, which has typically marked the start of bottoming process. Bitcoin would need to fall another 21% to reach the "ultimate bear market" mark, per analysts. Bitcoin traders hoping that the top crypto asset has already marked its bottom for the cycle are likely to be disappointed, according to a new report from CryptoQuant. The firm’s weekly report insists traders need patience, noting that bear market bottoms “take time to form,” while citing the true bottom for BTC is $55,000. “Bitcoin’s ultimate bear market bottom is around $55K today,” the report reads. “This level represents the realized price, which historically has been a major price support area in previous bear markets.” The realized price—a metric that tracks the average price at which investors have purchased a specific cryptocurrency—has been touched during both of the last two bear market bottoms, according to data from the firm. “Once the price gets to this level, it tends to gravitate around it for 4-6 months,” the firm wrote. The firm’s report also notes that its bull-bear market cycle indicator is only in the “bear” phase, and has not entered the “extreme bear” segment that has typically marked the beginning of a bottom phase. CryptoQuant’s analysis mirrors that from others in the last few weeks. Galaxy’s head of research noted the asset’s lack of near-term catalysts and structural weakness as reasons it could head towards its 200-week moving average around $58,000. Plus, earlier this week, Standard Chartered updated its forecast to indicate that BTC could drop to $50,000 before any sort of rebound towards $100,000. Predictors on Myriad —a prediction market operated by Decrypt 's parent company, Dastan— feel similarly, favoring Bitcoin’s drop to $55,000 before a pump to $84,000 at around 54% as of Saturday morning. Nevertheless, BTC has climbed 1.6% in the last 24 hours, recently changing hands around $69,724. At that mark, it has now dropped around 27% in the last 30 days and has fallen nearly 45% from its October all-time high of $126,080. Daily Debrief Newsletter Start every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more. Your Email Get it! Get it!