A critically low 14-day sma of the bitcoin funding rate, not seen in over a year, suggests an 'overcrowded' short market. historically, such conditions often precede a potent short squeeze, which can lead to a significant price rally due to cascading liquidations.
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The deeply negative funding rate is identified as a 'contrarian signal,' implying that the current bearish sentiment among short traders is overextended. a minor price rebound could trigger a short squeeze, propelling bitcoin's price significantly upwards.
The analysis focuses on a potential 'short-term rally' and a 'short squeeze,' which are typically rapid events driven by market mechanics.
Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing How Our News is Made Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Ad discliamer Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio. After a dour performance throughout the week, the price of Bitcoin experienced a fair amount of bullish impetus on Friday, February 13th. Going into the weekend, the premier cryptocurrency seemed on its way to reclaim the psychologically relevant $70,000 level. Interestingly, recent on-chain data shows that this latest bullish spurt might be the start of, at least, a short-term rally for the Bitcoin price. Is Bitcoin On The Verge Of A Short Squeeze? In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, market analyst CryptoOnchain revealed that the Bitcoin Funding Rate on Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, has dropped to a critically low level — one not seen in over a year. The relevant indicator here is the 14-day Simple Moving Average (SMA-14) of BTC Funding Rate. Related Reading Ethereum Derivatives Reset Raises Questions About Next Price Move: What Happens Next? 11 hours ago Typically, the Funding Rate metric estimates the periodic fee paid by traders in a derivatives market for a particular cryptocurrency (Bitcoin, in this case). When the funding rate is in the positive territory, it usually implies that the long traders (investors with buy positions) are paying a fee to short traders (investors with sell positions) in the derivatives market. On the flip side, a negative funding rate metric, as is the case currently, suggests that the payment is going from the short traders to the long traders. Data from CryptoQuant shows that the 14-day SMA of the Bitcoin Funding Rate on Binance has fallen to -0.002, its lowest level since September 2024. Source: CryptoQuant As CryptoOnchain rightly noted, a deeply negative funding rate , especially one that lasts over a 14-day average, indicates that bears (short traders) are increasingly betting against the premier cryptocurrency. The market analyst noted that these extremely negative values often correlate with the bottom of severe downward trends. CryptoOnchain wrote in the post: From an on-chain and market psychology perspective, deeply negative funding rates often serve as a strong Contrarian Signal. The market currently appears to be heavily “overcrowded” on the short side. From a historical perspective, this on-chain trend has often set the stage for a potent short squeeze, where a minor price rebound could trigger a cascade of liquidations of the mounting short positions. This cascade of short liquidations often serves as jet fuel, further propelling the Bitcoin price to the upside. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin stands at around $69,000, reflecting an over 5% jump in the past 24 hours. Related Reading Historical Pattern From 2017 Signals Bitcoin Price Crash To $35,000 14 hours ago The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView