Forget $80k: Michael Terpin warns bitcoin could revisit the $40,000s before a real recovery

Markets Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Forget $80k: Michael Terpin warns bitcoin could revisit the $40,000s before a real recovery Terpin argued that bitcoin’s post-halving bubble followed its typical arc and says history suggests the market may still face another wave of pain. By Will Canny | Edited by Jamie Crawley Feb 12, 2026, 12:25 p.m. Make us preferred on Google Transform Ventures CEO Michael Terpin at Consensus Hong Kong 2026 (CoinDesk) What to know : Michael Terpin says the bull market peak came in the fourth quarter after the halving, in line with prior cycles. While dismissing $80,000 and $60,000 bottom calls as premature, he sees the potential for bitcoin to revisit the $50,000s or even $40,000s in a fragile market. The current state of the crypto market is unfolding almost exactly as historical patterns would suggest, according to Michael Terpin, CEO of Transform Ventures That’s why he was skeptical of recent overly optimistic bottom calls. “When people thought the bottom was going to be at $80,000 and that it would only be a six-week bear market, that seems ridiculous to me,” Terpin said at Consensus Hong Kong 2026 on Thursday. STORY CONTINUES BELOW Don't miss another story. Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today . See all newsletters Sign me up By signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to our terms & conditions and privacy policy . Predictions that bitcoin would bottom at $60,000 and immediately resume its climb struck him as premature. “That also seems a little too soon.” While he stopped short of forecasting another year-long drawdown, Terpin believes the market likely faces “one more point of pain” in what he describes as a fragile environment. He suggests bitcoin could revisit levels in the $50,000s or even the $40,000s before a durable bottom is formed. The halving is central to bitcoin’s design because it cuts the reward miners receive for validating transactions in half roughly every four years, reducing the rate at which new coins are created. This built-in supply shock reinforces bitcoin’s scarcity, a core part of its value proposition, and has historically preceded major bull markets as reduced new supply meets steady or rising demand. The halving mechanism slows bitcoin’s inflation rate over time, ultimately capping total supply at 21 million coins and reinforcing its positioning as digital gold. "We are exactly where we should be,” Terpin argued, pointing to the well-established four-year cycle anchored around Bitcoin’s halving events. One of the most reliable elements of prior cycles has been the rough timing of the bubble peak and subsequent unwind, he argued. “The bull market popped in the fourth quarter after the halving,” he notes, adding that the speculative blow-off phase typically lasts between nine and 11 months. “This time it was 11 months.” Terpin draws a close parallel to the last cycle. “The highs, the bubble popping, were on Nov. 10, 2021,” he says. “The lows were right after FTX declared bankruptcy on Nov. 10, 2022. Exactly a year to the day.” Even the broader four-year rhythm has shown striking consistency. One full cycle was off by just three days from a clean four-year interval, while the first halving cycle was only a few weeks off a year in terms of its peak-to-trough structure, according to Terpin. Read more: Crypto asset manager Bitwise says bitcoin will break its four-year cycle in 2026 Bitcoin News Consensus Hong Kong 2026 Transform Ventures Michael Terpin More For You Bitcoin defies 'extreme fear,' hot jobs report to show signs of resilience By Francisco Rodrigues , Saksham Diwan | Edited by Sheldon Reback 46 minutes ago Bitcoin rose after the U.S. jobs report indicated employment growth in many sectors of the economy was restrained even as the headline number surged. What to know : Bitcoin rose to near $67,800 even as a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Derivatives data show stabilizing bearish momentum and rising demand for short-term downside protection, with options traders paying a "panic premium" for puts. UNI rose after BlackRock decided to list its $2.2 billion tokenized U.S. Treasury fund BUIDL on Uniswap and took a strategic stake in the exchange and the governance token. 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