Stocks are booming, Jobs are dying. What now?

Today’s Episode is brought to you by Figure ! Figure’s building the future of capital markets through blockchain with $20B unlocked in equity. Use Democratized Prime for your chance to win big with $25k USDC and Earn ~9% APY. The more you participate, the better your odds! Figure is the only account you need in the DeFi ecosystem. For every dollar you commit, you get another chance to win $25K USDC. Start now and enter to win while earning money on your crypto with Democratized Prime 1 . Win $25k USDC To investors, The investment community is very bullish on stocks right now, yet they believe there is economic pain ahead at the same time. According to a recent Gallup poll, approximately 50% of Americans expect the stock market to rise over the next 6 months. Adam Kobeissi points out this is the second-highest reading since 2020. You can see this excitement in the trading volume data too. Walter Bloomberg explains : “U.S. equity markets are seeing record turnover, averaging $1.03 trillion a day in January—a 50% jump from a year ago—with 19 billion shares traded daily. The surge spans retail, institutional, and automated trading, occurring amid calm markets rather than volatility. Factors include high stock prices, sector rotation from tech to energy/materials, ETF growth, and retail platforms like Robinhood.” In contrast to this enthusiasm in the equity market, 50% of Americans also expect unemployment to increase, the highest percentage since May 2009, even higher than the 49% seen during the 2020 pandemic. So we have a widespread belief that stocks are going to go up even though companies will be laying off a meaningful percentage of their employees. The only good explanation for this paradox is the rise of artificial intelligence. Public companies are openly telling their shareholders they will create more revenue and profit, yet they will need fewer employees to pull it off. Private companies are hiring fewer open roles. And the anecdotal reports from the front lines of entry level employees looking for a job paints a tough picture. The data is only going to get worse as well. Anna Wong, Chief US Economist at Bloomberg, writes “we are expecting about 666,000 downward revisions to March 2025 payrolls level as part of the annual benchmarking. After all that's done, we expect December 2025 to see a downward revision near 1 million.” So stocks are booming and jobs are disappearing…what should the Fed do? They will have to cut interest rates. They can’t risk the pain from deflationary forces forcing the United States into a deflationary spiral. We have tariffs, AI, and robotics swallowing the US economy at an accelerated pace. Experts in the AI field are literally writing pieces comparing the pervasiveness of AI to the unexpected spread of COVID in 2020 . Let me be very clear. Everyone is underestimating what is happening right now. This is not some simple change. We are watching two major changes happen to the US economy at the same time. The private sector is automating significant amounts of the economy at a pace we have never seen before, while the public sector is re-engineering the global monetary order with tariffs, deregulation, tax cuts, and a weaker dollar. You have the President of the United States literally calling for 200 basis point cuts to interest rates so the government can erase the annual deficit. If Trump, Bessent, and Kevin Warsh are all advocating for large interest rate cuts, what do you think is going to happen? Do you think they are going to cut rates? Yes, I think so. They are going to implement their view of the world. But this brings me back to the unlikely situation of stocks going higher, while the job market evaporates. Usually GDP surges and stocks lag. Then central banks raise interest rates to cool everything off. But we have GDP booming, stocks pushing higher, and interest rates being cut. This can only mean one thing…make sure you are holding assets instead of cash. They are going to weaken the US dollar like we have never seen before. And the short-term deflationary pressures are going to hide that devaluation very well. So the bitcoin and gold crowd will be happy in the long run, yet they may have headwinds in the short term. That is the true test of conviction. Can you ignore the noise and keep holding? I think those are the people who will be happiest a decade from now. - Anthony J. Pompliano Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management Bitcoin’s Future Will Be Decided by This One Shift Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of market experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. In this episode, we break down why bitcoin is selling off, why software multiples are compressing, and how capital is shifting toward scarce, physical assets. We cover data centers, AI, energy, and semiconductors — plus insights on Elon Musk, Tesla, SpaceX, and what it all means for markets. Podcast Sponsors Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!) Figure – Enter to win $25k USDC with Democratized Prime while earning ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! 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