Following Bitcoin Dive, Galaxy CEO Novogratz Says Crypto Headed for 'Much Lower Returns'
Analysis
Price Impact
HighComments from a major institutional figure like mike novogratz about the 'end of the age of speculation' and 'much lower returns' signal a significant shift in market sentiment and investor expectations, particularly for retail traders accustomed to high volatility and rapid gains. this could lead to a re-evaluation of investment strategies across the crypto market.
Trustworthiness
HighMike novogratz is the ceo of galaxy digital, a prominent institutional player in the crypto space. his insights are highly regarded and often reflect broader institutional sentiment and strategic shifts.
Price Direction
BearishNovogratz's outlook suggests a future with 'much lower returns' and a shift away from high-speculation, which is bearish for traditional crypto growth narratives. while he remains invested, his statements are likely to temper expectations for significant price appreciation, potentially leading to a more cautious market. the article also notes recent significant price declines for btc, eth, xrp, and sol.
Time Effect
LongThe 'end of the age of speculation' and the transition to real-world asset tokenization with 'lower returns' represent a fundamental, long-term shift in the crypto market's structure and investment thesis, not a short-term fluctuation. the 'humpty dumpty' analogy suggests a prolonged recovery from market events.
Original Article:
Article Content:
In brief Mike Novogratz declared the "age of speculation" in crypto is over, shifting to real-world asset tokenization. Galaxy is launching a $100 million hedge fund with 30% crypto exposure, 70% in financial services stocks. An October 2025 flash crash wiped $19 billion in derivatives, leaving a lasting impact on market narratives. The "age of speculation" that captivated crypto traders is ending, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz told CNBC in an interview Tuesday. Instead, he told the news outlet the market is “going to be transposed or replaced by us using these same rails, these crypto rails, to bring banking [and] financial services to the whole world. And so, it’s going to be real-world assets with much lower returns.” Novogratz said the recent shift in crypto market dynamics is a reflection of change in the broader finance sector. He compared the November 2022 drawdown that followed the bankruptcy of crypto exchange FTX to the October 2025 flash crash that wiped out $19 billion worth of crypto derivatives. Although there wasn't one big event (like the FTX wipeout) to trigger the October Bitcoin crash, it still left a mark. “Crypto is all about narratives, it’s about stories,” he said. “Those stories take a while to build and you’re pulling people in… so when you wipe out a lot of those people, Humpty Dumpty doesn’t get put back together right away." But that doesn't mean he's lost his taste for crypto markets. Galaxy just launched a $100 million crypto hedge fund aimed at balancing crypto exposure with equities. The fund is set to launch before the end of March. It will invest up to 30% of its assets in crypto tokens, and the remainder in financial services stocks that Galaxy believes will be affected by changes in digital asset technologies and laws, according to a Financial Times report . Novogratz also credited the growing interest in tokenization with driving a shift in crypto market dynamics. Tokenization is the effort to move off-chain assets, like stocks and bonds, onto the blockchain using tokens. But, he added, tokenized stocks will have a "a different return profile" compared to the gains that crypto traders are used to chasing. The price of Bitcoin has fallen more than 47% from its October all-time high mark above $126,000 to a recent price of $66,551 , and fell near the $60,000 mark last week. Bitcoin is down 10% over the last week, with Ethereum matching that recent decline and top altcoins like XRP and Solana marking even sharper losses during the same span. Daily Debrief Newsletter Start every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more. Your Email Get it! Get it!