This onchain metric has identified the Bitcoin bottom every cycle
Analysis
Price Impact
HighA historically accurate on-chain metric, 'btc supply in profit versus loss,' indicates a potential bitcoin cycle bottom forming around the $60,000 mark. this signal has reliably identified major market lows in past cycles (2015, 2019, 2020, 2022), suggesting a significant long-term accumulation opportunity.
Trustworthiness
HighThe analysis uses glassnode data, a reputable on-chain analytics provider, and a 'battle-tested' metric with a proven track record of identifying every bitcoin cycle bottom over the last decade.
Price Direction
BullishWhile the current spot price is higher ($76,073.52), the convergence point implied by the metric is near $60,000. this suggests a potential downside move to establish the true bottom, which, if it occurs, would mark a capitulation event and a strong long-term buying opportunity leading to a subsequent bullish trend. the overall signal is for long-term bullishness following the bottom formation.
Time Effect
LongIdentifying cycle bottoms is a long-term indicator, signaling the end of a bear market and the start of a multi-year accumulation phase that precedes the next major bull run. the effects of such a bottom typically play out over months to years.
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Markets Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email This onchain metric has identified the Bitcoin bottom every cycle Convergence between bitcoin supply in profit and supply in loss has repeatedly coincided with major market lows. By James Van Straten | Edited by Omkar Godbole Feb 4, 2026, 12:05 p.m. Make us preferred on Google BTC: Profit vs Loss Supply (Glassnode) What to know : Bitcoin currently has 11.1 million BTC in profit and 8.9 million BTC in loss, with historical bottoms forming when these two measures converge. If convergence occurred at current cost basis levels, it would imply a spot price near $60,000, similar to bottom signals seen in 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2022. Bottom-fishing is sexy but brutal. But if that's your game, this battle-tested on-chain indicator may be your North Star for spotting the bitcoin BTC $ 76,073.52 bear market bottom. This metric, called BTC supply in profit versus loss, gauges how bitcoin wallets sitting on paper profits stack up against those underwater. When the two balance out, bear markets tend to bottom, past data show. This makes it a reliable signal for capitulation and long-term opportunity. STORY CONTINUES BELOW Don't miss another story. Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today . See all newsletters Sign me up By signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to our terms & conditions and privacy policy . To the relief of bulls, that scenario could arrive soon, as the number of those sitting on profits and losses seems to be converging. Glassnode data shows that currently 11.1 million bitcoin is in profit, meaning these coins have been acquired at prices lower than the going market rate. Meanwhile, 8.9 million BTC is in loss. A potential convergence could mark a bottom just as it did in 2022 and 2018-19, as seen in the chart below. BTC: Profit vs Loss SUpply (Glassnode) The Glassnode chart illustrates the volume of BTC supply held in profit, shown in blue, and in loss, shown in red, relative to the circulating supply. As spot prices move above or below aggregate cost bases, coins migrate between these two supply cohorts, providing insight into market wide positioning and investor stress. Historically, convergence points between the two have marked definitive cycle bottoms. This occurred in November 2022 around $15,000 following the FTX collapse, in March 2020 when bitcoin briefly fell below $3,000 during the covid-19 market shock, in January 2019 near $3,300, and again in 2015 just above $200. Let's see if history repeats itself. Bitcoin News Glassnode losses In this article BTC BTC $ 76,073.52 ◢ 3.35 %