Crypto bear market is nearing end, with $60K as key bitcoin floor, Compass Point analysts say

Markets Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Crypto bear market is nearing end, with $60K as key bitcoin floor, Compass Point analysts say Further downside would likely require a U.S. equity bear market, analysts say, as bitcoin tests weak support. By Helene Braun , AI Boost Feb 3, 2026, 12:47 a.m. Make us preferred on Google (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images) What to know : Compass Point analysts say the crypto bear market is in its "final innings," with bitcoin likely to bottom between $60,000 and $68,000 absent a broader U.S. equity bear market. They see strong long-term holder support around $65,000 but warn that the $70,000 to $80,000 range is an "air pocket" with little structural support and continued risk from ETF outflows. A deeper drop toward $55,000 would likely require a major risk-off shock similar to 2022, even as regulatory progress inches forward and funding rates hint that a cyclical bottom may be nearing. The crypto market may be closing in on the bottom of its current downturn, but analysts at Compass Point say it will take a broader risk-off event to push bitcoin BTC $ 78,962.34 significantly lower. “While near-term risk remains skewed to the downside, we believe we're approaching the final innings of the crypto bear market,” analysts Ed Engel and Michael Donovan wrote in a report Monday. “Further downside would likely require a U.S. equity bear market.” STORY CONTINUES BELOW Don't miss another story. Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today . See all newsletters Sign me up By signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to our terms & conditions and privacy policy . Their base case calls for bitcoin to bottom between $60,000 and $68,000, a zone where long-term holders have shown buying conviction in past cycles. “We see very strong support within this range and our base case assumes BTC bottoms near ~$65k,” they wrote. “Of BTC owned by Long-term Holders (6+ months), 7% was acquired between $60-68k.” Bitcoin recently broke below $81,000 to as low as $74,532 over the weekend, a level the analysts say reflects the average cost basis for both bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors and the broader market. “Bitcoin ETFs recorded $3bn net outflows since 1/15. With over 50% of ETF AUM now underwater, we see risk that outflows remain elevated while ~$81-83k becomes overhead resistance,” they wrote. Read more: Bitcoin can still fall further. Historical data shows $60,000 will be the bottom 'Air pocket' The price range between $70,000 and $80,000 now presents an “air pocket,” with little structural support above $70,000, according to Engel and Donovan. “Less than 1% of Long-term Holder supply was acquired within this range,” they said, pointing to the potential for further selling pressure. If bitcoin falls through the $60,000–$68,000 support range, the next stop could be around $55,000 — but only under more extreme conditions. “Past bear markets have bottomed below the average cost basis for all historical buyers,” they said. That level currently sits around $55,000, but “during the 2022 bear market, it took the combination of an equity bear market and several high-profile crypto bankruptcies to breach BTC's average cost basis.” Read more: Circle’s biggest bear just threw in the towel, but warns the stock is still a crypto roller coaster Bitcoin ETF AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards . For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy . In this article BTC BTC $ 78,962.34 ◢ 1.66 %