Glassnode's analysis comparing xrp's current market structure to april 2022, when it transitioned into a bear market and experienced a steep decline after retesting its realized price, suggests a significant potential for further downside.
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Xrp is approaching its realized price, a critical support level. a failed retest, similar to april 2022, could lead to a 'steep move down' and a potential bear market. technical analysis from ali martinez also highlights resistance at $1.86 and support levels at $1.38 and $1.02, reinforcing a downward trend if current levels break.
The historical comparison to a bear market transition in 2022 implies a sustained period of potential price depreciation if the current retest of the realized price fails, indicating a longer-term effect on xrp's price action.
Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing How Our News is Made Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Ad discliamer Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio. As XRP slides below $1.60, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted how the current structure is looking similar to that of April 2022. XRP Is Fast Approaching Its Realized Price In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about where XRP is currently trading with respect to its Realized Price . This on-chain indicator measures the cost basis or acquisition price of the average address on the blockchain. When the spot price of the cryptocurrency is trading above this metric, it means the investors as a whole can be assumed to be in a state of profit. On the other hand, it being below the indicator suggests the majority of the supply is underwater. Related Reading Bitcoin Death Cross That Last Preceded A 66% Drop Is Back 4 days ago Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the XRP Realized Price over the last several years: The price of the coin seems to have declined toward the metric in recent days | Source: Glassnode on X As is visible in the above graph, the XRP spot price has been above the Realized Price since 2024, indicating that holders have been enjoying net unrealized gains. The degree of profitability, however, hasn’t been constant in this period. The asset’s price had the largest gap over the metric back in late 2024, owing to a fast bull rally. Then, over the first three quarters of 2025, profitability gradually dropped as tokens changed hands at higher levels, leading to an increase in the Realized Price. The indicator hit a plateau in the last quarter of the year, but the bearish shift in the asset meant that it was now the price’s turn to approach the line, cutting back on average investor profits further. This trend has deepened recently. Following the sector-wide crash during the past week, XRP has come dangerously close to the Realized Price, which now sits at $1.48. “The current market structure is very similar to that of April 2022,” noted the analytics firm. Back then, the asset was transitioning to a bear market and its price fell to the Realized Price. That retest failed, and what followed was a steep move down that eventually led to the cycle low. Given the proximity that the current XRP price has to the indicator, it now remains to be seen whether a retest will occur in the near future and if it would lead to further bearish action like in 2022. Related Reading Bitcoin Supply In Loss Turns Upward—Early Bear Market Signal? 5 days ago In the scenario that the cryptocurrency’s decline continues, technical support levels pointed out by analyst Ali Martinez may come into play. Looks like the asset has broken below a parallel channel recently | Source: @alicharts on X As displayed in the chart, Martinez has drawn levels based on a parallel channel pattern. “For XRP, resistance sits at $1.86, while support is at $1.38 and $1.02,” noted the analyst. XRP Price At the time of writing, XRP is trading around $1.60, down nearly 15% over the last week. The cryptocurrency appears to have plunged over the last few days | Source: XRPUSDT on TradingView Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com