Circle’s biggest bear just threw in the towel, but warns the stock is still a crypto roller coaster

Markets Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Circle’s biggest bear just threw in the towel, but warns the stock is still a crypto roller coaster Circle’s rising correlation with ether and DeFi exposure drives the re-rating, despite valuation and competition concerns. By Helene Braun , AI Boost | Edited by Aoyon Ashraf Jan 29, 2026, 10:14 p.m. Make us preferred on Google What to know : Compass Point’s Ed Engel upgraded Circle (CRCL) to Neutral from Sell and cut his price target to $60, arguing the stock now trades more as a proxy for crypto markets than as a standalone fintech. Engel notes that CRCL’s performance is increasingly tied to the ether and broader crypto cycles, with more than 75% of USDC supply used in DeFi or on exchanges, and the stock is still trading at a rich premium. Potential catalysts such as the CLARITY Act and tokenization of U.S. assets could support USDC growth, but Circle faces mounting competition from new stablecoins and bank-issued “deposit coins,” and its revenue may remain closely linked to speculative crypto activity for years. In this article ETH ETH $ 2,815.68 ◢ 6.62 % SOL SOL $ 117.58 ◢ 6.37 % HYPE HYPE $ 31.86 ◢ 4.39 % Circle (CRCL), the stablecoin issuer behind USDC, got a second upgrade by Wall Street analysts in a week, and this time by its biggest bear. Compass Point’s Ed Engel, who had a sell rating and the lowest price target among analysts, has upgraded the stock to Neutral just a day after Mizuho's Dan Dolev revised his bearish outlook . STORY CONTINUES BELOW Don't miss another story. Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today . See all newsletters Sign me up By signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to our terms & conditions and privacy policy . However, Engel's kept his price target the lowest among Wall Street analysts covering the stock, despite the upgrade. His new price target is $60, down from $75 due to premium valuation (more on that later). The stock fell 7.3% during regular trading hours on Thursday to $67.55, but rose about 1% in post-market trading. His upgrade reflects a changing narrative around the stock, which Engel now says trades more like a proxy for crypto markets than a standalone fintech. Engel downgraded the stock to sell in July, citing increased competition for stablecoin. However, many of his concerns have been priced in by the market, he added. The analyst also said that the stock could benefit if the long-debated CLARITY Act passes in 2026, which Engel sees as a 60% probability. The legislation could provide clearer regulatory ground for stablecoins, potentially supporting growth in the USDC supply. Separately, increased tokenization of U.S. stocks and ETFs in DeFi markets — even without regulatory approval — may also reduce Circle's dependence on broader crypto sentiment. Cyclical nature To Engel, Circle is now trading like a cyclical stock, which matters for the stock's investment thesis. Since the market dip in October, the digital dollar USDC has been moving in "lockstep" with ether ETH $ 2,815.68 , with a correlation of 0.66. According to the analyst, this trend is likely to stay through mid-2026. The reason? Over 75% of all USDC is currently being used in high-risk crypto trading or lending apps. This means that, despite being a "stablecoin," USDC is still heavily tied to the wild ups and downs of the broader crypto market, making Circle more of a cyclical stock. And this is still a problem, as he thinks the stock is trading at a premium valuation given the company's exposure to a cyclical asset class — one of the reasons his price target remains the lowest among analysts. Competition heating up Engel noted additional risks for the stock. USDC supply is down 9% since December, and emerging stablecoins like USDH, CASH, and PYUSD are taking market share, particularly on platforms like Solana SOL $ 117.58 and Hyperliquid HYPE $ 31.86 . Engel also flagged that the firm could guide 2026 operating expenses above Wall Street forecasts, as many of its ongoing investments are unlikely to generate meaningful revenue in the near term. Competition is also heating up from traditional financial players. JPMorgan, State Street, and BNY Mellon are moving forward with “deposit coins” that could directly compete with USDC in developed markets. While Engel sees some upside if crypto markets rebound or regulation improves, the note concludes that Circle’s revenue remains tightly linked to speculative activity — and that a true decoupling from crypto cycles could still be years away. Circle AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards . For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy . More For You Pudgy Penguins: A New Blueprint for Tokenized Culture By CoinDesk Research Dec 30, 2025 Commissioned by Pudgy Penguins Pudgy Penguins is building a multi-vertical consumer IP platform — combining phygital products, games, NFTs and PENGU to monetize culture at scale. What to know : Pudgy Penguins is emerging as one of the strongest NFT-native brands of this cycle, shifting from speculative “digital luxury goods” into a multi-vertical consumer IP platform. Its strategy is to acquire users through mainstream channels first; toys, retail partnerships and viral media, then onboard them into Web3 through games, NFTs and the PENGU token. 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