Circle shares rise 4% as Polymarket-driven USDC growth prompts analyst upgrade

Markets Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Circle shares rise 4% as Polymarket-driven USDC growth prompts analyst upgrade Mizuho's Dan Dolev revised his bearish outlook on the stablecoin issuer, upgrading the stock to neutral. By Helene Braun | Edited by Stephen Alpher Jan 28, 2026, 5:28 p.m. Make us preferred on Google What to know : Shares of Circle rose 4% after Mizuho upgraded the stock to neutral, citing surging USDC usage on prediction platform Polymarket as a new growth driver. Analyst Dan Dolev now expects Polymarket’s 2026 trading volumes to annualize around $50 billion, which it estimates could add roughly 25 percent or more to USDC’s market value. Dolev nevertheless kept a cautious stance on the shares, noting that rate cuts, higher distribution costs and fierce stablecoin competition may offset Polymarket-driven gains. Shares of Circle (CRCL) rose 4% Wednesday after Japanese finance giant Mizuho upgraded the stock to neutral, pointing to a surge in activity on crypto prediction platform Polymarket as a new driver of growth for Circle’s stablecoin, USDC. “When we initiated CRCL with an Underperform ... Our worry then was that meager USDC distribution, declining interest rates and fierce competition from Tether's USDT would weigh on the stock,” analyst Dan Dolev wrote. “Since all Polymarket bets are settled in USDC, we now see USDC on Polymarket as a looming catalyst." STORY CONTINUES BELOW Don't miss another story. Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today . See all newsletters Sign me up By signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to our terms & conditions and privacy policy . Polymarket’s 2026 trading volumes are off to a fast start, according to the note, with annualized volumes of looming around $50 billion, three times the amount in 2025. Mizuho estimates that the current run-rate could drive ~25% potential upside to USDC market cap or more. As a result, Dolev raised his forecasts for the average USDC in circulation for 2026 and 27 by ~7% and ~21%, respectively, which in turn increases his revenue estimates by ~6% and ~21% for those years. He also pointed to broader trends behind the rise of event-driven crypto trading. “After the 2024 U.S. election (which sparked the prediction market craze), these platforms diversified into sports, economics, and pop culture bets, which attracted a larger user base and volume.” Polymarket, Dolev noted, is particularly well-positioned. “Polymarket draws a large share of non-crypto-native users into crypto via event trading, which drives incremental demand for USDC from outside the usual DeFi audience.” He said that the prediction platform will likely expand further in the next two years which would add billions in incremental USDC market cap. Still, Dolev stopped short of issuing a bullish call, and his $77 price target suggests just modest upside from the current level just above $70. “Although Polymarket is certainly a potential boost to USDC," he said, "this is somewhat offset by other adverse drivers including: Looming rate cuts, rising cost of distribution and intense competition from both stablecoin players like Tether USDT $ 0.9988 and incumbent financial institutions launching their own stablecoins.” Circle's 4% advance on Wednesday comes as most crypto-related names are declining alongside continued sluggishness in the price of bitcoin, which remains stuck below the $90,000 level. Circle Polymarket More For You Pudgy Penguins: A New Blueprint for Tokenized Culture By CoinDesk Research Dec 30, 2025 Commissioned by Pudgy Penguins Pudgy Penguins is building a multi-vertical consumer IP platform — combining phygital products, games, NFTs and PENGU to monetize culture at scale. What to know : Pudgy Penguins is emerging as one of the strongest NFT-native brands of this cycle, shifting from speculative “digital luxury goods” into a multi-vertical consumer IP platform. Its strategy is to acquire users through mainstream channels first; toys, retail partnerships and viral media, then onboard them into Web3 through games, NFTs and the PENGU token. The ecosystem now spans phygital products (> $13M retail sales and >1M units sold), games and experiences (Pudgy Party surpassed 500k downloads in two weeks), and a widely distributed token (airdropped to 6M+ wallets). While the market is currently pricing Pudgy at a premium relative to traditional IP peers, sustained success depends on execution across retail expansion, gaming adoption and deeper token utility. 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