Fidelity's director of global macro warns bitcoin's recent bounce might be a 'countertrend trap' and that further 'rebalancing' is needed due to its 'huge outlier' momentum, cooling spot etf inflows, and dropping futures interest, indicating institutional exhaustion.
The analysis comes from jurrien timmer, fidelity's director of global macro, a respected figure from a major financial institution, based on detailed market metrics and historical comparisons.
The warning suggests that bitcoin's recent rally may not be sustainable and could lead to further corrections or consolidation, implying downside risk or extended sideways movement before a true bottom is established.
The concerns about institutional exhaustion, cooling inflows, and rebalancing are immediate market signals that could affect short-to-medium term price action and momentum.
Cover image via U.Today Read U.TODAY on Google News The $116 trillion benchmarks The momentum outliner Advertisement Jurrien Timmer , Fidelity’s director of global macro, has questioned whether Bitcoin’s bounce to $95,000 is a return to trend or a "countertrend" trap. The executive has warned that the "huge outlier" status of Bitcoin’s momentum curve may signal that further rebalancing is required before a true bottom is established. In a Friday market update, Timmer compared the underwhelming performance of the world’s largest digital asset to the robust performance of gold. The latter continues to set new highs as a reliable hedge against global monetary expansion. HOT Stories Fidelity Warns of Bitcoin ‘Rebalancing’ Amid Gold Rush Morning Crypto Report: Dogecoin to the Moon? $1.10 DOGE Price Scenario Revealed, Solana Phone Coin Explodes 400%, $1.37 Billion in XRP Risk Flooding Market Turkish Banking Giant Extends Ripple Partnership U.Today Crypto Review: XRP Prints Double Bottom, Shiba Inu (SHIB) Uptrend Available, Bitcoin (BTC) 'Now or Never' Price Moment The $116 trillion benchmarks Timmer’s analysis begins with the "ever-expanding" global money supply, which currently sits at a staggering $116.5 trillion and is growing at an annualized rate of 11.4%. Advertisement According to the Fidelity executive, gold is doing exactly what it is designed to do in this environment: "Gold has continued to perform extremely well amid this evolving global world order," Timmer noted. However, the signal for Bitcoin is far less clear. The cryptocurrency corrected sharply and then rallied from $80,000 to the $95,000 range. You Might Also Like Fri, 01/23/2026 - 07:23 Schiff Claims Wall Street Killed Bitcoin By Alex Dovbnya Advertisement "It’s hard to know whether the correction is over and the uptrend is resuming, or whether the rally from $80k to $95k is a countertrend bounce," Timmer wrote. Timmer pointed to two critical liquidity metrics that suggest institutional exhaustion. First, futures interest has "dropped substantially," meaning that leverage is leaving the system. Moreover, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have cooled substantially. The momentum outliner Perhaps the most bearish note in Timmer’s assessment is his view of Bitcoin’s "momentum curve." He described the asset’s recent price velocity as a "huge outlier" compared to historical norms and other asset classes. "Perhaps some rebalancing is in order here as well," Timmer concluded. Timmer’s analysis offers a sobering reality check for some bulls who believe that the worst is already over. #Bitcoin Price Prediction #Fidelity