Why the Next Crypto Rally Will Look Different

Today’s Letter is Brought To You by Abra ! Borrow up to 50% of the value of your crypto holdings with Abra in a highly flexible open term loan. Your collateral is held in a separately managed account where you retain legal title to the assets. Rates are highly competitive, ranging from 4-7%APY. No interest payments are required during the life of the loan. There are no minimums or maximum loan sizes. To learn more, click here . To set up an account, click here for individuals and here for entities. Set Up An Account Today! To investors, I am always looking for ambitious entrepreneurs who want to disrupt the status quo. One of the people I have been most impressed with is Evgeny Gaevoy, Co-founder & CEO of Wintermute. He and his team burst onto the scene a few years ago to dominate the crypto OTC market, but Evgeny has much bigger ambitions than that. He told me on a podcast interview that he believes Wintermute can compete with Citadel in the public equities market as well. That would be a tall task, yet I wouldn’t count out Evgeny and the team he has assembled. I have no economic interest in their business or their success. I am just impressed. Below is an op-ed that Evgeny wrote about his thoughts on the next crypto rally. Enjoy! For over a decade, the crypto market has followed a predictable four-year cycle: bitcoin halves, liquidity enters, capital steadily moves into higher-beta assets and prices rise together. That pattern broke in 2025. Instead of the clean bull market many expected, we saw choppy price action and repeated false starts. Wintermute sits at the center of global crypto liquidity, executing billions in OTC trading daily across every counterparty type. From our view, the reason for this cycle break is clear: the market is maturing. Crypto is transitioning from a reflexive, hype-driven market into one shaped by capital structure, product design and macro forces. In 2026, the biggest drivers will be rate cuts, ETF rules, and regulatory clarity. The edge is structural awareness. 2025: the year the cycle died Historically, BTC gains recycled into ETH, then flowed into large-cap alts and eventually the long tail. This transmission mechanism proved broken last year as capital entered but didn’t meaningfully travel. On our OTC desk, BTC and ETH together accounted for approximately half of the notional volume. Capital concentrated into a small group of large caps, with persistent weakness below as the long tail continued to lose share. While institutional participation grew, as evidenced by a 20%+ year over year increase in our base of active institutional OTC counterparties, their formerly predictable behavior changed. Instead of chasing upside, they traded tactically, took profits early and stayed liquid. That’s exactly what happens when an asset class becomes balance-sheet relevant. Institutions now stabilize crypto, rather than push prices higher. They need clear macro, regulatory, or product-driven catalysts to deploy capital. Retail behavior changed, too. After $19 billion of leveraged positions were wiped out on October 10, retail flows rotated sharply back into BTC and ETH – the first time in years that retail and institutional positioning converged around liquidity and resilience. Historically, crypto’s extreme volatility was amplified by disagreement. Retail piling into high-beta plays while institutions accumulating majors contributed to volatility that made fortunes. Alignment creates stability. Stability is fine if you’re an allocator, but a problem if you’re hunting asymmetric returns. ETFs reshaped market structure Crypto is starting to resemble equity indices: depth and resilience at the top, scarcity of capital elsewhere. ETFs have fundamentally changed how capital enters crypto, with the plumbing now reinforcing concentration rather than dispersion. If an asset isn’t ETF-eligible, certain inflows simply won’t reach it, regardless of narrative strength. ETF-linked execution on Wintermute’s OTC desk reflects this, overwhelmingly favoring BTC and, more recently, SOL and XRP. ETF inflows no longer lift the entire market. They lift what the structure allows them to buy. 2026: a different kind of opportunity Derivatives activity shows the market is positioned for relative stability. Our OTC options activity is now driven primarily by yield strategies and hedging instead of upside speculation. Investors are selling volatility, managing exposure and getting paid to wait. This behavior is driving a major shift in the market’s risk profile. For the first time, we’re seeing a permanent demand for downside insurance and a significant drop in the expectation of wild price swings. In fact, Bitcoin’s volatility surface is starting to look more like a mature equity index like the S&P 500 than a speculative early-stage asset. For upside to re-accelerate, the market’s constraints need to shift. ETF eligibility, funding costs and regulatory clarity are the levers that matter. When they move, capital follows. Investors who outperform in 2026 will be the ones who understand where capital can flow and what needs to change for it to flow elsewhere. Investors waiting for the next cycle opportunity will be waiting a long time. Crypto is more institutional, more disciplined and better capitalized than it’s ever been. The next rally will be quieter and more selective. But for those paying attention to the right signals and structure, it will be just as rewarding. — Evgeny Gaevoy, Co-founder & CEO, Wintermute OTC data and observations referenced are drawn from Wintermute’s 2025 Digital Asset OTC Markets Report . 🚨 READER NOTE : We’re officially one month out from Bitcoin Investor Week 2026, happening Feb 9th – 13th in NYC. Join thousands of sophisticated investors and institutional leaders to discuss Bitcoin’s impact on the global economy, corporate balance sheets, and personal portfolios. **To kick off the new year, we’re offering 50% off General Admission tickets for the next 48 hours. Use code NEWYEAR50 at sign-up.** Expect fireside chats, panels, networking events across the city and a top lineup of speakers including Mike Novogratz, Grant Cardone, Anthony Scaramucci, Jan van Eck, Fred Thiel, Lyn Alden, Jeff Park, and Bo Hines — with more announcements coming soon. 🎟️ Tickets are limited. Buy yours at www.bitcoininvestorweek.com Get your tickets now What Fed Chaos Means for Bitcoin’s Future Jeff Park is a Partner & Chief Investment Officer at ProCap Financial. In this conversation, we discuss Fed independence and the ongoing investigation impacting markets, Jeff’s outlook on Bitcoin and public equities, and what the potential BitGo IPO could mean for the crypto space. We also touch on regulatory clarity, the GENIUS Act, and where U.S. legislation around digital assets may be headed. Enjoy! Podcast Sponsors Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? 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